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the film criticism aspect of cyber | by maryann johanson

Oscar predictions: no sweep for ‘Brokeback’

UPDATED: winners are indicated with ♦s

Here’s an at-a-glance look at my picks for tomorrow night’s Academy Award — projected winners are Xed. Keep in mind: this isn’t a list of whom I think should win Oscars but whom I think will win (I’ll post my own personal picks for best-ofs for 2005 soon). For an explanation of the reasoning behind my picks for the more prominent categories, please see the Oscars handicapping and analysis I posted in February.

There are some categories for which I have not seen all — or even any — of the nominees, and in some of those categories, I’ve abstained from making a prediction.

As always, take these predictions with a grain of salt. No one really understands how the Academy thinks.
Performance by an actor in a leading role
[ × ] Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
[   ] Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
[   ] Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
[   ] Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
[   ] David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
[ × ] George Clooney, Syriana
[   ] Matt Dillon, Crash
[   ] Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
[   ] Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
[   ] William Hurt, A History of Violence

Performance by an actress in a leading role
[   ] Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
[   ] Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
[   ] Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
[   ] Charlize Theron, North Country
[ × ] Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

Performance by an actress in a supporting role
[ × ] Amy Adams, Junebug
[   ] Catherine Keener, Capote
[   ] Frances McDormand, North Country
[   ] Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
[   ] Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain

Best animated feature film of the year
[   ] Howl’s Moving Castle, Hayao Miyazaki
[   ] Tim Burton’s Corpse Bride, Mike Johnson and Tim Burton
[ × ] Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit, Nick Park and Steve Box ♦

Achievement in art direction
[   ] Good Night, and Good Luck., Art Direction: Jim Bissell; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale
[   ] Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, Art Direction: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
[ × ] King Kong, Art Direction: Grant Major; Set Decoration: Dan Hennah and Simon Bright
[   ] Memoirs of a Geisha, Art Direction: John Myhre; Set Decoration: Gretchen Rau ♦
[   ] Pride & Prejudice, Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer

Achievement in cinematography
[   ] Batman Begins, Wally Pfister
[   ] Brokeback Mountain, Rodrigo Prieto
[ × ] Good Night, and Good Luck., Robert Elswit
[   ] Memoirs of a Geisha; Dion Beebe ♦
[   ] The New World, Emmanuel Lubezki

Achievement in costume design
[ × ] Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Gabriella Pescucci
[   ] Memoirs of a Geisha, Colleen Atwood ♦
[   ] Mrs. Henderson Presents, Sandy Powell
[   ] Pride & Prejudice, Jacqueline Durran
[   ] Walk the Line, Arianne Phillips

Achievement in directing
[ × ] Brokeback Mountain, Ang Lee ♦
[   ] Capote, Bennett Miller
[   ] Crash, Paul Haggis
[   ] Good Night, and Good Luck., George Clooney
[   ] Munich, Steven Spielberg

Best documentary feature
[   ] Darwin’s Nightmare, Hubert Sauper
[   ] Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room, Alex Gibney and Jason Kliot
[ × ] March of the Penguins, Luc Jacquet and Yves Darondeau ♦
[   ] Murderball, Henry-Alex Rubin and Dana Adam Shapiro
[   ] Street Fight, Marshall Curry †
(† not seen by me)

Best documentary short subject
[   ] “The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club,” Dan Krauss †
[   ] “God Sleeps in Rwanda,” Kimberlee Acquaro and Stacy Sherman †
[   ] “The Mushroom Club,” Steven Okazaki †
[   ] “A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin,” Corinne Marrinan and Eric Simonson † ♦
(† not seen by me)

Achievement in film editing
[   ] Cinderella Man, Mike Hill and Dan Hanley
[   ] The Constant Gardener, Claire Simpson
[   ] Crash, Hughes Winborne ♦
[ × ] Munich, Michael Kahn
[   ] Walk the Line, Michael McCusker

Best foreign language film of the year
[   ] Don’t Tell
[   ] Joyeux Noël
[   ] Paradise Now
[   ] Sophie Scholl: The Final Days
[ × ] Tsotsi
(† not seen by me)

Achievement in makeup
[   ] The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, Howard Berger and Tami Lane ♦
[   ] Cinderella Man, David Leroy Anderson and Lance Anderson
[ × ] Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith, Dave Elsey and Nikki Gooley

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
[ × ] Brokeback Mountain, Gustavo Santaolalla ♦
[   ] The Constant Gardener, Alberto Iglesias
[   ] Memoirs of a Geisha, John Williams
[   ] Munich, John Williams
[   ] Pride & Prejudice, Dario Marianelli

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
[   ] “In the Deep,” from Crash, music by Kathleen Bird York and Michael Becker, lyric by Kathleen Bird York
[   ] “It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp,” from Hustle & Flow, music and lyric by Jordan Houston, Cedric Coleman and Paul Beauregard ♦
[ × ] “Travelin’ Thru,” from Transamerica, music and lyric by Dolly Parton

Best motion picture of the year
[ × ] Brokeback Mountain
[   ] Capote
[   ] Crash
[   ] Good Night, and Good Luck.
[   ] Munich

Best animated short film
[   ] “Badgered,” Sharon Colman †
[   ] “The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation,” John Canemaker and Peggy Stern ♦
[   ] “The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello,” Anthony Lucas †
[   ] “9,” Shane Acker †
[   ] “One Man Band,” Andrew Jimenez and Mark Andrews †
(† not seen by me)

Best live action short film
[   ] “Ausreisser (The Runaway),” Ulrike Grote †
[   ] “Cashback,” Sean Ellis and Lene Bausager †
[   ] “The Last Farm,” Rúnar Rúnarsson and Thor S. Sigurjónsson †
[   ] “Our Time Is Up,” Rob Pearlstein and Pia Clemente †
[   ] “Six Shooter,” Martin McDonagh † ♦
(† not seen by me)

Achievement in sound editing
[   ] King Kong, Mike Hopkins and Ethan Van der Ryn ♦
[   ] Memoirs of a Geisha, Wylie Stateman
[ × ] War of the Worlds, Richard King

Achievement in sound mixing
[   ] The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, Terry Porter, Dean A. Zupancic and Tony Johnson
[   ] King Kong, Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges and Hammond Peek ♦
[   ] Memoirs of a Geisha, Kevin O’Connell, Greg P. Russell, Rick Kline and John Pritchett
[   ] Walk the Line, Paul Massey, D.M. Hemphill and Peter F. Kurland
[ × ] War of the Worlds, Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer and Ronald Judkins

Achievement in visual effects
[   ] The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, Dean Wright, Bill Westenhofer, Jim Berney and Scott Farrar
[ × ] King Kong, Joe Letteri, Brian Van’t Hul, Christian Rivers and Richard Taylor ♦
[   ] War of the Worlds, Dennis Muren, Pablo Helman, Randy Dutra and Daniel Sudick

Adapted screenplay
[   ] Brokeback Mountain, screenplay by Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana ♦
[   ] Capote, screenplay by Dan Futterman
[   ] The Constant Gardener, screenplay by Jeffrey Caine
[   ] A History of Violence, screenplay by Josh Olson
[ × ] Munich, screenplay by Tony Kushner and Eric Roth

Original screenplay
[   ] Crash, screenplay by Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco, story by Paul Haggis ♦
[   ] Good Night, and Good Luck., screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov
[   ] Match Point, written by Woody Allen
[ × ] The Squid and the Whale, written by Noah Baumbach
[   ] Syriana, written by Stephen Gaghan



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