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the film criticism aspect of cyber | by maryann johanson

Oscar predictions: a king and a queen win big

UPDATED: winners are indicated with ♦s

Check out my Oscar wrapup at Film.com.

Here’s an at-a-glance look at my picks for Sunday night’s Academy Awards — projected winners are Xed. Keep in mind: this isn’t a list of whom I think should win Oscars but whom I think will win. (See my own personal best-ofs here.) For an explanation of the reasoning behind my picks in the glamour categories, please see this post of mine at Film.com; another post with explanations of my picks in the crafts category will be up at Film.com on Thursday.

This rundown follows the order of the printable ballot at Film.com… which looks like the order in which the awards will be presented. Very handy for keeping track at your Oscar party.

There are some categories for which I have not seen all — or even any — of the nominees, and in some of those categories, my prediction is nothing but pure guesswork.

As always, take these predictions with a grain of salt. No one really understands how the Academy thinks.

(See the Academy’s site for a list of nominees with full credits.)
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
[ × ] Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
[   ] Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
[   ] Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
[   ] Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
[   ] Mark Wahlberg, The Departed

Achievement in visual effects
[ × ] Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
[   ] Poseidon
[   ] Superman Returns

Best animated feature film of the year
[   ] Cars
[ × ] Happy Feet
[   ] Monster House

Best live action short film
[   ] “Binta and the Great Idea (Binta Y La Gran Idea)” †
[   ] “Éramos Pocos (One Too Many)” †
[   ] “Helmer & Son” †
[   ] “The Saviour” †
[ × ] “West Bank Story” † ♦
(† not seen by me)

Best animated short film
[   ] “The Danish Poet” † ♦
[ × ] “Lifted” †
[   ] “The Little Matchgirl” †
[   ] “Maestro” †
[   ] “No Time for Nuts” †
(† not seen by me)

Achievement in costume design
[ × ] Curse of the Golden Flower
[   ] The Devil Wears Prada
[   ] Dreamgirls
[   ] Marie Antoinette
[   ] The Queen

Achievement in makeup
[   ] Apocalypto
[   ] Click
[ × ] Pan’s Labyrinth

Performance by an actress in a supporting role
[   ] Adriana Barraza, Babel
[   ] Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
[   ] Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
[ × ] Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
[   ] Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

Best documentary short subject
[ × ] “The Blood of Yingzhou District” † ♦
[   ] “Recycled Life” †
[   ] “Rehearsing a Dream” †
[   ] “Two Hands” †
(† not seen by me)

Best documentary feature
[   ] Deliver Us from Evil
[ × ] An Inconvenient Truth
[   ] Iraq in Fragments
[   ] Jesus Camp
[   ] My Country, My Country
(† not seen by me)

Achievement in art direction
[   ] Dreamgirls
[   ] The Good Shepherd
[ × ] Pan’s Labyrinth
[   ] Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
[   ] The Prestige

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
[   ] Babel
[   ] The Good German
[ × ] Notes on a Scandal
[   ] Pan’s Labyrinth
[   ] The Queen

Achievement in sound mixing
[   ] Apocalypto
[   ] Blood Diamond
[   ] Dreamgirls
[   ] Flags of Our Fathers
[ × ] Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
[ × ] “I Need to Wake Up” from An Inconvenient Truth
[   ] “Listen” from Dreamgirls
[   ] “Love You I Do” from Dreamgirls
[   ] “Our Town” from Cars
[   ] “Patience” from Dreamgirls

Achievement in sound editing
[   ] Apocalypto
[   ] Blood Diamond
[   ] Flags of Our Fathers
[   ] Letters from Iwo Jima
[ × ] Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

Best foreign language film of the year
[   ] After the Wedding
[   ] Days of Glory (Indigènes)
[   ] The Lives of Others § ♦
[ × ] Pan’s Labyrinth
[   ] Water
(† not seen by me)
(§ not seen by me till after the Oscars)

Achievement in film editing
[ × ] Babel
[   ] Blood Diamond
[   ] Children of Men
[   ] The Departed
[   ] United 93

Performance by an actor in a leading role
[   ] Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
[   ] Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
[   ] Peter O’Toole, Venus
[   ] Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
[ × ] Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

Achievement in cinematography
[   ] The Black Dahlia
[ × ] Children of Men
[   ] The Illusionist
[   ] Pan’s Labyrinth
[   ] The Prestige

Performance by an actress in a leading role
[   ] Penélope Cruz, Volver
[   ] Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
[ × ] Helen Mirren, The Queen
[   ] Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
[   ] Kate Winslet, Little Children

Adapted screenplay
[   ] Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
[   ] Children of Men
[   ] The Departed
[   ] Little Children
[ × ] Notes on a Scandal

Original screenplay
[ × ] Babel
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan’s Labyrinth
The Queen

Achievement in directing
[   ] Babel, Alejandro González Iñárritu
[ × ] The Departed, Martin Scorsese ♦
[   ] Letters from Iwo Jima, Clint Eastwood
[   ] The Queen, Stephen Frears
[   ] United 93, Paul Greengrass

Best motion picture of the year
[   ] Babel
[ × ] The Departed
[   ] Letters from Iwo Jima
[   ] Little Miss Sunshine
[   ] The Queen

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