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my guesses for Sunday night’s 86th Academy Awards

academyawards.jpg

UPDATE 03.03.14:

Winners are indicated. I got 16/24. Pretty good, if I may say so myself.


UPDATE 03.01.14:

Here’s an at-a-glance look at my picks for tomorrow night’s Academy Awards — projected winners are Xed at the lefthand side. Keep in mind: those Xes don’t represent whom I think should win Oscars but whom I think will win, based on what little I can grasp about how the Academy thinks. (I’ve also noted which nominees I think should win. Kindly note that this is not necessarily my take on who did the best performance/writing/FX/whatever of the year, but whom I think is best among the nominees.)

This is the first year ever — in my lifelong history as a film fan and my 16+ years as a film critic — that I’ve seen every single film nominated. (Some reviews still to be written!) So I’m more confident than I’ve ever been in my guesses. Which is to say, still not all that confident.

I will update this post during the ceremony as winners are announced. I’ll probably have some snark to offer on Twitter, if you’d like to follow along with me @maryannjohanson.


PREVIOUS 02.08.14:

With links to my reviews. I’ll be adding reviews of as many additional films as I can between now and the Oscars.

I’ll also update the post at some point closer to the Oscars with my predictions.

(See the Academy’s site at Oscars.org and ABC’s site at Oscars.com for your further Oscar needs.)


best picture
[   ] American Hustle
[   ] Captain Phillips
[   ] Dallas Buyers Club
[   ] Gravity should win
[   ] Her
[   ] Nebraska
[   ] Philomena
[ X ] 12 Years a Slave WINNER
[   ] The Wolf of Wall Street

best actor in a leading role
[   ] Christian Bale in American Hustle
[   ] Bruce Dern in Nebraska
[   ] Leonardo DiCaprio in The Wolf of Wall Street
[   ] Chiwetel Ejiofor in 12 Years a Slave
[ X ] Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club should win WINNER

best actress in a leading role
[   ] Amy Adams in American Hustle
[ X ] Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine should win WINNER
[   ] Sandra Bullock in Gravity
[   ] Judi Dench in Philomena
[   ] Meryl Streep in August: Osage County

best actor in a supporting role
[   ] Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips
[   ] Bradley Cooper in American Hustle
[   ] Michael Fassbender in 12 Years a Slave
[   ] Jonah Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street
[ X ] Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club should win WINNER

best actress in a supporting role
[   ] Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine
[ X ] Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle
[   ] Lupita Nyong’o in 12 Years a Slave should win WINNER
[   ] Julia Roberts in August: Osage County
[   ] June Squibb in Nebraska

best animated feature
[   ] The Croods, Chris Sanders, Kirk DeMicco, and Kristine Belson
[   ] Despicable Me 2, Chris Renaud, Pierre Coffin, and Chris Meledandri
[   ] Ernest & Celestine, Benjamin Renner and Didier Brunner
[ X ] Frozen, Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, and Peter Del Vecho should win WINNER
[   ] The Wind Rises, Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki

best cinematography
[   ] The Grandmaster, Philippe Le Sourd
[   ] Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki WINNER
[ X ] Inside Llewyn Davis, Bruno Delbonnel should win
[   ] Nebraska, Phedon Papamichael
[   ] Prisoners, Roger A. Deakins

best costume design
[   ] American Hustle, Michael Wilkinson
[   ] The Grandmaster, William Chang Suk Ping
[ X ] The Great Gatsby, Catherine Martin should win WINNER
[   ] The Invisible Woman, Michael O’Connor
[   ] 12 Years a Slave, Patricia Norris

best director
[   ] American Hustle, David O. Russell
[ X ] Gravity, Alfonso Cuarón should win WINNER
[   ] Nebraska, Alexander Payne
[   ] 12 Years a Slave, Steve McQueen
[   ] The Wolf of Wall Street, Martin Scorsese

best documentary feature
[   ] The Act of Killing, Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sørensen should win
[   ] Cutie and the Boxer, Zachary Heinzerling and Lydia Dean Pilcher
[   ] Dirty Wars, Richard Rowley and Jeremy Scahill
[ X ] The Square, Jehane Noujaim and Karim Amer
[   ] 20 Feet from Stardom (Morgan Neville, Gil Friesen, and Caitrin Rogers) WINNER

best documentary short
[   ] “CaveDigger,” Jeffrey Karoff
[   ] “Facing Fear,” Jason Cohen should win
[   ] “Karama Has No Walls,” Sara Ishaq
[   ] “The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life,” Malcolm Clarke and Nicholas Reed WINNER
[ X ] “Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall,” Edgar Barens

best film editing
[   ] American Hustle, Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers, and Alan Baumgarten
[   ] Captain Phillips, Christopher Rouse
[   ] Dallas Buyers Club, John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa
[ X ] Gravity, Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger should win WINNER
[   ] 12 Years a Slave, Joe Walker

best foreign language film
[   ] The Broken Circle Breakdown, Belgium
[ X ] The Great Beauty, Italy WINNER
[   ] The Hunt, Denmark should win
[   ] The Missing Picture, Cambodia
[   ] Omar, Palestine

best makeup and hairstyling
[ X ] Dallas Buyers Club, Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews should win WINNER
[   ] Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, Stephen Prouty
[   ] The Lone Ranger, Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny

best original score
[   ] The Book Thief, John Williams
[ X ] Gravity, Steven Price should win WINNER
[   ] Her, William Butler and Owen Pallett
[   ] Philomena, Alexandre Desplat
[   ] Saving Mr. Banks, Thomas Newman

best original song
[   ] “Happy,” Despicable Me 2
[ X ] “Let It Go,” Frozen should win WINNER
[   ] “The Moon Song,” Her
[   ] “Ordinary Love,” Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

best production design
[   ] American Hustle, Judy Becker and Heather Loeffler
[ X ] Gravity, Andy Nicholson, Rosie Goodwin, and Joanne Woollard should win
[   ] The Great Gatsby, Catherine Martin and Beverley Dunn WINNER
[   ] Her, K.K. Barrett and Gene Serdena
[   ] 12 Years a Slave, Adam Stockhausen and Alice Baker

best animated short film
[   ] “Feral,” Daniel Sousa and Dan Golden
[ X ] “Get a Horse!,” Lauren MacMullan and Dorothy McKim should win
[   ] “Mr. Hublot,” Laurent Witz and Alexandre Espigares WINNER
[   ] “Possessions,” Shuhei Morita
[   ] “Room on the Broom,” Max Lang and Jan Lachauer

best live action short film
[   ] “That Wasn’t Me,” Esteban Crespo
[   ] “Just Before Losing Everything,” Xavier Legrand and Alexandre Gavras
[ X ] “Helium,” Anders Walter and Kim Magnusson WINNER
[   ] “Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?,” Selma Vilhunen and Kirsikka Saari
[   ] “The Voorman Problem,” Mark Gill and Baldwin Li should win

best sound editing
[   ] All Is Lost, Steve Boeddeker and Richard Hymns
[   ] Captain Phillips, Oliver Tarney
[ X ] Gravity, Glenn Freemantle should win WINNER
[   ] The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Brent Burge and Chris Ward
[   ] Lone Survivor, Wylie Stateman

best sound mixing
[   ] Captain Phillips, Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith, and Chris Munro
[ X ] Gravity, Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, and Chris Munro should win WINNER
[   ] The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick, and Tony Johnson
[   ] Inside Llewyn Davis, Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff, and Peter F. Kurland
[   ] Lone Survivor, Andy Koyama, Beau Borders, and David Brownlow

best visual effects
[ X ] Gravity, Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk, and Neil Corbould should win WINNER
[   ] The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, and Eric Reynolds
[   ] Iron Man 3, Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash, and Dan Sudick
[   ] The Lone Ranger, Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams, and John Frazier
[   ] Star Trek Into Darkness, Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann, and Burt Dalton

best adapted screenplay
[   ] Before Midnight, Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
[   ] Captain Phillips, Billy Ray
[ X ] Philomena, Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope should win
[   ] 12 Years a Slave, John Ridley WINNER
[   ] The Wolf of Wall Street, Terence Winter

best original screenplay
[ X ] American Hustle, Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell should win
[   ] Blue Jasmine, Woody Allen
[   ] Dallas Buyers Club, Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack
[   ] Her, Spike Jonze WINNER
[   ] Nebraska, Bob Nelson

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  • RogerBW

    I’m predicting Dallas Buyers Club for best picture, Ejiofor for Actor, Blanchett for Actress, Leto and Nyong’o for Supporting, 12 Years a Slave for Direction. More at my blog.

  • Drave

    Your pics are unusually optimistic this year! Lots of alignment between Will Win and Should Win! I have a weird feeling that 12 Years a Slave is actually going to get shut out this year for some reason. We’ll see how things go. If Cate Blanchett doesn’t win, though, I am going to have some stern words with the Academy.

  • RogerBW

    I ended up feeling the same way, particularly on the minor awards. “Makeup and Hairstyling” and “Original Song” are both as close to dead certs as ever happens, and I’ll be amazed if they go anywhere except the favourites.

  • http://www.flickfilosopher.com/ MaryAnn Johanson

    Yeah, I didn’t notice that till I actually put this post together. Of course, my own top 10 looks pretty different from the Best Pic noms, but there’s no film there that isn’t great.