UPDATED: winners are indicated with ♦s
Here’s an at-a-glance look at my picks for tomorrow night’s Academy Award -- projected winners are Xed. Keep in mind: this isn’t a list of whom I think should win Oscars but whom I think will win (I’ll post my own personal picks for best-ofs for 2005 soon). For an explanation of the reasoning behind my picks for the more prominent categories, please see the Oscars handicapping and analysis I posted in February.
There are some categories for which I have not seen all -- or even any -- of the nominees, and in some of those categories, I’ve abstained from making a prediction.
As always, take these predictions with a grain of salt. No one really understands how the Academy thinks.
Performance by an actor in a leading role
[ × ] Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote ♦
[ ] Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
[ ] Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
[ ] Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
[ ] David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
[ × ] George Clooney, Syriana ♦
[ ] Matt Dillon, Crash
[ ] Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
[ ] Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
[ ] William Hurt, A History of Violence
Performance by an actress in a leading role
[ ] Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
[ ] Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
[ ] Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
[ ] Charlize Theron, North Country
[ × ] Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line ♦
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
[ × ] Amy Adams, Junebug
[ ] Catherine Keener, Capote
[ ] Frances McDormand, North Country
[ ] Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener ♦
[ ] Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
Best animated feature film of the year
[ ] Howl’s Moving Castle, Hayao Miyazaki
[ ] Tim Burton's Corpse Bride, Mike Johnson and Tim Burton
[ × ] Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit, Nick Park and Steve Box ♦
Achievement in art direction
[ ] Good Night, and Good Luck., Art Direction: Jim Bissell; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale
[ ] Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, Art Direction: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
[ × ] King Kong, Art Direction: Grant Major; Set Decoration: Dan Hennah and Simon Bright
[ ] Memoirs of a Geisha, Art Direction: John Myhre; Set Decoration: Gretchen Rau ♦
[ ] Pride & Prejudice, Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
Achievement in cinematography
[ ] Batman Begins, Wally Pfister
[ ] Brokeback Mountain, Rodrigo Prieto
[ × ] Good Night, and Good Luck., Robert Elswit
[ ] Memoirs of a Geisha; Dion Beebe ♦
[ ] The New World, Emmanuel Lubezki
Achievement in costume design
[ × ] Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Gabriella Pescucci
[ ] Memoirs of a Geisha, Colleen Atwood ♦
[ ] Mrs. Henderson Presents, Sandy Powell
[ ] Pride & Prejudice, Jacqueline Durran
[ ] Walk the Line, Arianne Phillips
Achievement in directing
[ × ] Brokeback Mountain, Ang Lee ♦
[ ] Capote, Bennett Miller
[ ] Crash, Paul Haggis
[ ] Good Night, and Good Luck., George Clooney
[ ] Munich, Steven Spielberg
Best documentary feature
[ ] Darwin’s Nightmare, Hubert Sauper
[ ] Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room, Alex Gibney and Jason Kliot
[ × ] March of the Penguins, Luc Jacquet and Yves Darondeau ♦
[ ] Murderball, Henry-Alex Rubin and Dana Adam Shapiro
[ ] Street Fight, Marshall Curry †
(† not seen by me)
Best documentary short subject
[ ] “The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club,” Dan Krauss †
[ ] “God Sleeps in Rwanda,” Kimberlee Acquaro and Stacy Sherman †
[ ] “The Mushroom Club,” Steven Okazaki †
[ ] “A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin,” Corinne Marrinan and Eric Simonson † ♦
(† not seen by me)
Achievement in film editing
[ ] Cinderella Man, Mike Hill and Dan Hanley
[ ] The Constant Gardener, Claire Simpson
[ ] Crash, Hughes Winborne ♦
[ × ] Munich, Michael Kahn
[ ] Walk the Line, Michael McCusker
Best foreign language film of the year
[ ] Don’t Tell †
[ ] Joyeux Noël
[ ] Paradise Now †
[ ] Sophie Scholl: The Final Days
[ × ] Tsotsi ♦
(† not seen by me)
Achievement in makeup
[ ] The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, Howard Berger and Tami Lane ♦
[ ] Cinderella Man, David Leroy Anderson and Lance Anderson
[ × ] Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith, Dave Elsey and Nikki Gooley
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
[ × ] Brokeback Mountain, Gustavo Santaolalla ♦
[ ] The Constant Gardener, Alberto Iglesias
[ ] Memoirs of a Geisha, John Williams
[ ] Munich, John Williams
[ ] Pride & Prejudice, Dario Marianelli
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
[ ] “In the Deep,” from Crash, music by Kathleen Bird York and Michael Becker, lyric by Kathleen Bird York
[ ] “It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp,” from Hustle & Flow, music and lyric by Jordan Houston, Cedric Coleman and Paul Beauregard ♦
[ × ] “Travelin’ Thru,” from Transamerica, music and lyric by Dolly Parton
Best motion picture of the year
[ × ] Brokeback Mountain
[ ] Capote
[ ] Crash ♦
[ ] Good Night, and Good Luck.
[ ] Munich
Best animated short film
[ ] “Badgered,” Sharon Colman †
[ ] “The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation,” John Canemaker and Peggy Stern ♦
[ ] “The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello,” Anthony Lucas †
[ ] “9,” Shane Acker †
[ ] “One Man Band,” Andrew Jimenez and Mark Andrews †
(† not seen by me)
Best live action short film
[ ] “Ausreisser (The Runaway),” Ulrike Grote †
[ ] “Cashback,” Sean Ellis and Lene Bausager †
[ ] “The Last Farm,” Rúnar Rúnarsson and Thor S. Sigurjónsson †
[ ] “Our Time Is Up,” Rob Pearlstein and Pia Clemente †
[ ] “Six Shooter,” Martin McDonagh † ♦
(† not seen by me)
Achievement in sound editing
[ ] King Kong, Mike Hopkins and Ethan Van der Ryn ♦
[ ] Memoirs of a Geisha, Wylie Stateman
[ × ] War of the Worlds, Richard King
Achievement in sound mixing
[ ] The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, Terry Porter, Dean A. Zupancic and Tony Johnson
[ ] King Kong, Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges and Hammond Peek ♦
[ ] Memoirs of a Geisha, Kevin O’Connell, Greg P. Russell, Rick Kline and John Pritchett
[ ] Walk the Line, Paul Massey, D.M. Hemphill and Peter F. Kurland
[ × ] War of the Worlds, Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer and Ronald Judkins
Achievement in visual effects
[ ] The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, Dean Wright, Bill Westenhofer, Jim Berney and Scott Farrar
[ × ] King Kong, Joe Letteri, Brian Van’t Hul, Christian Rivers and Richard Taylor ♦
[ ] War of the Worlds, Dennis Muren, Pablo Helman, Randy Dutra and Daniel Sudick
Adapted screenplay
[ ] Brokeback Mountain, screenplay by Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana ♦
[ ] Capote, screenplay by Dan Futterman
[ ] The Constant Gardener, screenplay by Jeffrey Caine
[ ] A History of Violence, screenplay by Josh Olson
[ × ] Munich, screenplay by Tony Kushner and Eric Roth
Original screenplay
[ ] Crash, screenplay by Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco, story by Paul Haggis ♦
[ ] Good Night, and Good Luck., screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov
[ ] Match Point, written by Woody Allen
[ × ] The Squid and the Whale, written by Noah Baumbach
[ ] Syriana, written by Stephen Gaghan
