Oscar predictions: there won’t be sweep
UPDATED: Winners are indicated with ♦s.
This may have been my worst year ever for accurate predictions. I'll have some thoughts on that later in the day.
Here’s an at-a-glance look at my picks for Sunday night’s Academy Awards -- projected winners are Xed. Keep in mind: this isn’t a list of whom I think should win Oscars but whom I think will win. (See my own personal best-ofs here.)
In two categories -- foreign language film and documentary short subject -- I have not seen any of the nominated films, so I'm not making predictions there.
As always, take these predictions with a grain of salt. No one really understands how the Academy thinks.
(See the Academy’s site for your further Oscar needs.)
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
[ ] Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
[ ] Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
[ × ] Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
[ ] Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
[ ] Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men ♦
Achievement in visual effects
[ ] The Golden Compass, Michael L. Fink; Bill Westenhofer; Ben Morris; Trevor Wood ♦
[ × ] Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End, John Knoll; Hal T. Hickel; Charlie Gibson; John Frazier
[ ] Transformers, Scott Farrar; Scott Benza; Russell Earl; John Frazier
Best animated feature film of the year
[ ] Persepolis
[ × ] Ratatouille ♦
[ ] Surf’s Up
Best live action short film
[ ] “Le Mozart des pickpockets,” Philippe Pollet-Villard ♦
[ ] “Om natten,” Christian E. Christiansen; Louise Vesth
[ ] “Il Supplente,” Andrea Jublin
[ × ] “Tanghi argentini,” Guy Thys; Anja Daelemans
[ ] “The Tonto Woman,” Daniel Barber; Matthew Brown
Best animated short film
[ ] “I Met the Walrus,” Josh Raskin
[ ] “Madame Tutli-Putli,” Chris Lavis; Maciek Szczerbowski
[ × ] “Moya lyubov,” Aleksandr Petrov
[ ] “Même les pigeons vont au paradis,” Samuel Tourneux; Vanesse Simon
[ ] “Peter & the Wolf,” Suzie Templeton; Hugh Welchman ♦
Achievement in costume design
[ ] Albert Wolsky, Across the Universe
[ ] Jacqueline Durran, Atonement
[ ] Alexandra Byrne, Elizabeth: The Golden Age ♦
[ ] Marit Allen, La Vie en Rose (La Môme)
[ × ] Colleen Atwood, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Achievement in makeup
[ × ] La Vie en Rose (La Môme), Didier Lavergne; Jan Archibald ♦
[ ] Norbit, Rick Baker; Kazuhiro Tsuji
[ ] Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End, Ve Neill; Martin Samuel
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
[ ] Ruby Dee, American Gangster
[ ] Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
[ × ] Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
[ ] Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
[ ] Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton ♦
Best documentary short subject
[ ] “La Corona,” Amanda Micheli; Isabel Vega †
[ ] “Freeheld,” Cynthia Wade; Vanessa Roth † ♦
[ ] “Salim Baba,” Tim Sternberg; Francisco Bello †
[ ] “Sari’s Mother,” James Longley †
(† not seen by me; no prediction here)
Best documentary feature
[ ] No End in Sight, Charles Ferguson; Audrey Marrs
[ ] Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience, Richard Robbins
[ × ] Sicko, Michael Moore; Meghan O’Hara
[ ] Taxi to the Dark Side, Alex Gibney; Eva Orner ♦
[ ] War Dance, Andrea Nix; Sean Fine
Achievement in art direction
[ ] American Gangster, Arthur Max (art director); Beth A. Rubino (set decorator)
[ ] Atonement, Sarah Greenwood (art director); Katie Spencer (set decorator)
[ ] The Golden Compass, Dennis Gassner (art director); Anna Pinnock (set decorator)
[ × ] Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, Dante Ferretti (art director); Francesca Lo Schiavo (set decorator) ♦
[ ] There Will Be Blood, Jack Fisk (art director); Jim Erickson (set decorator)
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
[ ] Marco Beltrami, 3:10 to Yuma
[ × ] Dario Marianelli, Atonement ♦
[ ] Alberto Iglesias, The Kite Runner
[ ] James Newton Howard, Michael Clayton
[ ] Michael Giacchino, Ratatouille
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
[ ] “Raise It Up,” from August Rush, Jamal Joseph; Charles Mack; Tevin Thomas
[ × ] “Happy Working Song,” from Enchanted, Alan Menken (music); Stephen Schwartz (lyrics)
[ ] “So Close,” from Enchanted, Alan Menken (music); Stephen Schwartz (lyrics)
[ ] “That’s How You Know,” from Enchanted, Alan Menken (music); Stephen Schwartz (lyrics)
[ ] “Falling Slowly,” from Once, Glen Hansard; Markéta Irglová ♦
Achievement in sound
[ ] 3:10 to Yuma, Paul Massey; David Giammarco; Jim Stuebe
[ ] The Bourne Ultimatum, Scott Millan; David Parker; Kirk Francis ♦
[ ] No Country for Old Men, Skip Lievsay; Craig Berkey; Greg Orloff; Peter F. Kurland
[ ] Ratatouille, Randy Thom; Michael Semanick; Doc Kane
[ × ] Transformers, Kevin O’Connell; Greg P. Russell; Peter J. Devlin
Achievement in sound editing
[ ] The Bourne Ultimatum, Karen M. Baker; Per Hallberg ♦
[ ] No Country for Old Men, Skip Lievsay
[ ] Ratatouille, Randy Thom; Michael Silvers
[ ] There Will Be Blood, Matthew Wood; Christopher Scarabosio
[ × ] Transformers, Ethan Van der Ryn; Mike Hopkins
Best foreign language film of the year
[ ] 12 †
[ ] Beaufort †
[ ] Die Fälscher † ♦
[ ] Katyn †
[ ] Mongol †
(† not seen by me; no prediction here)
Achievement in film editing
[ ] Christopher Rouse, The Bourne Ultimatum ♦
[ ] Jay Cassidy, Into the Wild
[ ] Ethan and Joel Coen (as Roderick Jaynes), No Country for Old Men
[ × ] Juliette Welfling, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Le Scaphandre et le papillon)
[ ] Dylan Tichenor, There Will Be Blood
Performance by an actor in a leading role
[ ] Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
[ ] Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
[ ] George Clooney, Michael Clayton
[ ] Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
[ × ] Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood ♦
Achievement in cinematography
[ ] Roger Deakins, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
[ ] Seamus McGarvey, Atonement
[ ] Roger Deakins, No Country for Old Men
[ ] Janusz Kaminski, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Le Scaphandre et le papillon)
[ × ] Robert Elswit, There Will Be Blood ♦
Performance by an actress in a leading role
[ × ] Julie Christie, Away From Her
[ ] Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
[ ] Ellen Page, Juno
[ ] Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose (La Môme) ♦
[ ] Laura Linney, The Savages
Adapted screenplay
[ ] Christopher Hampton, Atonement
[ × ] Sarah Polley, Away From Her
[ ] Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men ♦
[ ] Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Le Scaphandre et le papillon)
[ ] Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Original screenplay
[ ] Diablo Cody, Juno ♦
[ × ] Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
[ ] Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
[ ] Brad Bird, Ratatouille
[ ] Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
Achievement in directing
[ ] Jason Reitman, Juno
[ ] Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
[ ] Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men ♦
[ ] Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Le Scaphandre et le papillon)
[ × ] Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Best motion picture of the year
[ × ] Atonement
[ ] Juno
[ ] Michael Clayton
[ ] No Country for Old Men ♦
[ ] There Will Be Blood
(Technorati tags: Academy Awards, Oscar predictions)
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comments
posted by PaulW (Fri Feb 22 08, 4:56PM)
I know that Hal Holbrook getting an Oscar would be equal to a lifetime achievement award, but cmon Bardem's performance in No Country for Old Men made that movie, and was one of the best villainous performances since Anthony Hopkins played that cuisine expert, wassisname, Dr. something... you know the character that crushed on that cute auburn-haired FBI rookie...
The Best Animated might actually be a toss-up. Everyone loves Pixar and Ratatooie was a great movie, but the voters are also politically-motivated types and they might want to give the nod to Persepolis to send a message (and the message is "We think B&W films are arty") In that regard people might also go for Taxi to the Dark Side for Best Doc (and is it just me, or have the Documentaries become the de facto must-see Best Pictures?)
posted by HellsdevilJ (Fri Feb 22 08, 5:11PM)
your the first person I've seen pick "Atonement". I honestly don't think is stands A chance against "There will be blood" or " No Country for old men"( who I picked). I think the Coen brothers got it this year. I got my picks up on my Journal.
posted by Kate (Fri Feb 22 08, 7:25PM)
As much as I want "Atonement" to win Best Picture (easily the best film of 2007), it won't. "No Country For Old Men" will sweep, and take Best Picture.
posted by Alex Knapp (Fri Feb 22 08, 11:42PM)
MaryAnn, please. Kevin O’Connell has lost his last 19 nominations for Sound in a row. Do you really think he'll pick up this one? Please. O'Connell will never win! Never! Bwhahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
posted by PaulW (Sat Feb 23 08, 12:38PM)
I still can't comprehend how Annie Hall beat Star Wars. Bananas was so much better. There needs to be a Do-Over rule for Oscar awards...
P.S. although I do believe, after re-watching My Cousin Vinny recently, that Marisa Tomei totally deserved her win.
posted by MaryAnn (Sat Feb 23 08, 3:41PM)
Like I said, these aren't my choices for whom I think *should* win, but whom I think *will* win.
posted by Laurie D. T. Mann (Sat Feb 23 08, 6:07PM)
Here's who I think should win:
Best Picture: Atonement
Best Director: The Coen Brothers
Best Actor: Viggo Mortensen
Best Actress: Julie Christie
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem
Best Supporting Actress: Ruby Dee
The Atonement/Coen split was basically what happened in the BAFTAs.
As for Daniel Day Lewis being a shoo-in - the last time we all heard this, a relative unknown named Adrien Brody won (and deservedly so).
posted by PaulW (Sun Feb 24 08, 11:22PM)
Any surprises yet about the Oscars?
posted by JT (Mon Feb 25 08, 2:48AM)
Well, at least you weren't wrong on everything.
posted by MaryAnn (Mon Feb 25 08, 10:25AM)
I *was* wrong about almost everything. Perhaps we're seeing a shift in the Academy's personality -- there *are* lots of new, younger members in recent years...
posted by Clayj (Mon Feb 25 08, 11:50AM)
Definitely a very mixed bag last night. It was interesting to see Atonement virtually shut out, and curious to see The Bourne Ultimatum pick up 3 Oscars for technical achievements (don't get me wrong, it's a great flick; I just thought it was odd).
posted by Laurie D. T. Mann (Mon Feb 25 08, 12:30PM)
I was much more right about the minor awards than the major awards this year!
posted by Moe (Mon Feb 25 08, 10:25PM)
Oscar count:
Bourne Ultimatum - 3
There Will Be Blood - 2
Atonement - 1
Wow.