Oscar predictions: ‘The Hurt Locker’ won’t be hurting

UPDATED: Winners are indicated with ♦s.

I made informed guesses in 20 of the 24 categories; of those, I guessed 12 correctly. (Well, 13, really, except that in the animated short category in the original version of this page, I had both “The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)” and “Logorama” checked off. I did think “Logorama” would win, but this ballot did not reflect that prediction alone. So I’m counting that in the 20 but not in the 12.) Which is a little better than chance.


Here’s an at-a-glance look at my picks for Sunday night’s Academy Awards -- projected winners are Xed. Keep in mind: this isn’t a list of whom I think should win Oscars but whom I think will win. (But see my piece at Film.com “The Biggest Upset at the Academy Awards Will Be ...,” the prognostications of which are not represented here.)

I haven’t made predictions in categories for which I have not seen enough of the nominated films to make a reasonable guess.

As always, take these predictions with a grain of salt. No one really understands how the Academy thinks.

(See the Academy’s site at Oscars.org and ABC’s site at Oscars.com for your further Oscar needs.)

Performance by an actor in a leading role
[ × ] Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart
[   ] George Clooney in Up in the Air
[   ] Colin Firth in A Single Man
[   ] Morgan Freeman in Invictus
[   ] Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
[   ] Matt Damon in Invictus
[   ] Woody Harrelson in The Messenger
[   ] Christopher Plummer in The Last Station
[   ] Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones
[ × ] Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds

Performance by an actress in a leading role
[ × ] Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side
[   ] Helen Mirren in The Last Station
[   ] Carey Mulligan in An Education
[   ] Gabourey Sidibe in Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
[   ] Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia

Performance by an actress in a supporting role
[   ] Penélope Cruz in Nine
[   ] Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air
[   ] Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart
[   ] Anna Kendrick in Up in the Air
[ × ] Mo'Nique in Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

Best animated feature film of the year
[   ] Coraline, Henry Selick
[   ] Fantastic Mr. Fox, Wes Anderson
[   ] The Princess and the Frog, John Musker and Ron Clements
[   ] The Secret of Kells, Tomm Moore
[ × ] Up, Pete Docter ♦

Achievement in art direction
[ × ] Avatar, Art Direction: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg, Set Decoration: Kim Sinclair ♦
[   ] The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Art Direction: Dave Warren and Anastasia Masaro, Set Decoration: Caroline Smith
[   ] Nine, Art Direction: John Myhre, Set Decoration: Gordon Sim
[   ] Sherlock Holmes, Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood, Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
[   ] The Young Victoria, Art Direction: Patrice Vermette, Set Decoration: Maggie Gray

Achievement in cinematography
[   ] Avatar, Mauro Fiore ♦
[   ] Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, Bruno Delbonnel
[ × ] The Hurt Locker, Barry Ackroyd
[   ] Inglourious Basterds, Robert Richardson
[   ] The White Ribbon, Christian Berger

Achievement in costume design
[   ] Bright Star, Janet Patterson
[   ] Coco Before Chanel, Catherine Leterrier
[   ] The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Monique Prudhomme
[ × ] Nine, Colleen Atwood
[   ] The Young Victoria, Sandy Powell ♦

Achievement in directing
[   ] Avatar, James Cameron
[ × ] The Hurt Locker, Kathryn Bigelow ♦
[   ] Inglourious Basterds, Quentin Tarantino
[   ] Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire, Lee Daniels
[   ] Up in the Air, Jason Reitman

Best documentary feature
[   ] Burma VJ
[   ] The Cove
[   ] Food, Inc.
[   ] The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers
[   ] Which Way Home

Best documentary short subject
[   ] “China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province”
[   ] “The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner”
[   ] “The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant”
[   ] “Music by Prudence” ♦
[   ] “Rabbit à la Berlin”

Achievement in film editing
[   ] Avatar, Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua and James Cameron
[ × ] District 9, Julian Clarke
[   ] The Hurt Locker, Bob Murawski and Chris Innis ♦
[   ] Inglourious Basterds, Sally Menke
[   ] Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire, Joe Klotz

Best foreign language film of the year
[   ] Ajami
[   ] El Secreto de Sus Ojos
[   ] The Milk of Sorrow
[   ] A Prohete (Un Prophète)
[   ] The White Ribbon

Achievement in makeup
[   ] Il Divo, Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano
[ × ] Star Trek, Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow ♦
[   ] The Young Victoria, Jon Henry Gordon and Jenny Shircore

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
[   ] Avatar, James Horner
[ × ] Fantastic Mr. Fox, Alexandre Desplat
[   ] The Hurt Locker, Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
[   ] Sherlock Holmes, Hans Zimmer
[   ] Up, Michael Giacchino ♦

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
[   ] “Almost There” from The Princess and the Frog, Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
[   ] “Down in New Orleans” from The Princess and the Frog, Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
[   ] “Loin de Paname” from Paris 36, Music by Reinhardt Wagner, Lyric by Frank Thomas
[   ] “Take It All” from Nine, Music and Lyric by Maury Yeston
[ × ] “The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart),” from Crazy Heart, Music and Lyric by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett ♦

Best motion picture of the year
[   ] Avatar
[   ] The Blind Side
[   ] District 9
[   ] An Education
[ × ] The Hurt Locker
[   ] Inglourious Basterds
[   ] Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
[   ] A Serious Man
[   ] Up
[   ] Up in the Air

Best animated short film
[   ] “French Roast”
[   ] “Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty”
[   ] “The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)”
[ × ] “Logorama”
[   ] “A Matter of Loaf and Death”

Best live action short film
[   ] “The Door”
[   ] “Instead of Abracadabra”
[   ] “Kavi”
[   ] “Miracle Fish”
[   ] “The New Tenants” ♦

Achievement in sound editing
[ × ] Avatar, Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
[   ] The Hurt Locker, Paul N.J. Ottosson ♦
[   ] Inglourious Basterds, Wylie Stateman
[   ] Star Trek, Mark Stoeckinger and Alan Rankin
[   ] Up, Michael Silvers and Tom Myers

Achievement in sound mixing
[ × ] Avatar, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson and Tony Johnson
[   ] The Hurt Locker, Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett ♦
[   ] Inglourious Basterds, Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti and Mark Ulano
[   ] Star Trek, Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson and Peter J. Devlin
[   ] Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers and Geoffrey Patterson

Achievement in visual effects
[ × ] Avatar, Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones ♦
[   ] District 9, Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros and Matt Aitken
[   ] Star Trek, Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh and Burt Dalton

Adapted screenplay
[   ] District 9, Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
[   ] An Education, Screenplay by Nick Hornby
[   ] In the Loop, Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
[   ] Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire, Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher ♦
[ × ] Up in the Air, Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner

Original screenplay
[   ] The Hurt Locker, Written by Mark Boal ♦
[ × ] Inglourious Basterds, Written by Quentin Tarantino
[   ] The Messenger, Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
[   ] A Serious Man, Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
[   ] Up, Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy

support


pre-Disqus comments

Wow, if District 9 manages to win at least one award, I don't care about what happens to the rest of the night. But you really think it has a shot at Editing especially with Avatar and Hurt Locker in the mix? Again, I would LOVE for this to happen, but it just doesn't seem likely.

Don't neglect to write a post about how many you got right (and how many wrong)

From your Film.com article:

But the real upset? Here's what I think could happen, by the same Rules of Academy Voting: The Secret of Kells wins Best Animated Feature.
I hope so!

:-)

me too1

Hurt Locker might win best editing

Speaking of rules of Academy voting, here's an article from the NY Times about how the voting system will be changed:
http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/04/an-economists-view-of-the-new-oscar-voting/

Perhaps the new rules will change the conventional wisdom of predictions.

Maryann:

The live short, "Instead of Abracadra," is about a total geek. I think you'll like it.

My Predictions:

Best Director - Kathryn Bigelow
Best Picture - The Hurt Locker
Best Actor - Jeff Bridges
Best Actress - Carey Mulligan
Best Supporting Actor - Christoph Waltz
Best Supporting Actress - Mo'Nique
Best Animated Feature - Up

I see no reason why Carey Mulligan shouldn't beat Sandra Bullock.

The live short, "Instead of Abracadra," is about a total geek. I think you'll like it.

I'd love to see it. I don't know how or where, however. How did you see it?

I was surprised Hurt Locker took sound mixing and editing over Avatar (or Up or Star Trek).

Sad that Coraline didn't win Selik needed this more than Pixar

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posted:
Mon Mar 08 10, 1:57AM

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Ajami
Alan Rankin
Aldo Signoretti
Alessandro Camon
Alexandre Desplat
Anastasia Masaro
Andrew R Jones
Andy Nelson
Anna Behlmer
Anna Kendrick
Armando Iannucci
Avatar
Barney Burman
Barry Ackroyd
Blind Side
Bob Murawski
Bob Peterson
Bright Star
Bruno Delbonnel
Buck Sanders
Burma VJ
Burt Dalton
Carey Mulligan
Caroline Smith
Catherine Leterrier
China's Unnatural Disaster The Tears of Sichuan Province
Chris Innis
Christian Berger
Christoph Waltz
Christopher Boyes
Christopher Plummer
Coco Before Chanel
Colin Firth
Colleen Atwood
Coraline
Cove
Crazy Heart
Dan Kaufman
Dave Warren
District 9
Door
Education
El Secreto de Sus Ojos
Ethan Coen
Fantastic Mr Fox
Food Inc
Frank Thomas
French Roast
Gabourey Sidibe
Gary Summers
Geoffrey Fletcher
Geoffrey Patterson
George Clooney
Gordon Sim
Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty
Greg P Russell
Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
Hans Zimmer
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Helen Mirren
Henry Selick
Hurt Locker
Il Divo
Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
In the Loop
Inglourious Basterds
Instead of Abracadabra
Invictus
James Cameron
James Horner
Janet Patterson
Jason Reitman
Jeff Bridges
Jenny Shircore
Jeremy Renner
Jesse Armstrong
Joe Klotz
Joe Letteri
Joel Coen
Joel Harlow
John Musker
John Myhre
John Refoua
Jon Henry Gordon
Julian Clarke
Julie and Julia
Kathryn Bigelow
Katie Spencer
Kavi
Kim Sinclair
Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)
Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
Last Station
Last Truck Closing of a GM Plant
Lee Daniels
Logorama
Loin de Paname
Lovely Bones
Maggie Gray
Maggie Gyllenhaal
Marco Beltrami
Mark Boal
Mark Stoeckinger
Mark Ulano
Matt Aitken
Matter of Loaf and Death
Mauro Fiore
Maury Yeston
Meryl Streep
Messenger
Michael Giacchino
Michael Minkler
Michael Silvers
Milk of Sorrow
Mindy Hall
Miracle Fish
Mo'Nique
Monique Prudhomme
Morgan Freeman
Most Dangerous Man in America Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers
Music by Prudence
Neill Blomkamp
New Tenants
Nick Hornby
Nine
Oren Moverman
Oscars
Paris 36
Patrice Vermette
Paul Kavanagh
Paul NJ Ottosson
Penelope Cruz
Pete Docter
Peter J Devlin
Peter Muyzers
Precious
Precious Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Princess and the Frog
Prohete (Un Prophete)
Quentin Tarantino
Rabbit a la Berlin
Randy Newman
Ray Beckett
Reinhardt Wagner
Richard Baneham
Rick Carter
Robert Habros
Robert Richardson
Robert Stromberg
Roger Guyett
Ron Clements
Russell Earl
Ryan Bingham
Sally Menke
Sandra Bullock
Sandy Powell
Sarah Greenwood
Secret of Kells
Serious Man
Sheldon Turner
Sherlock Holmes
Simon Blackwell
Single Man
Stanley Tucci
Star Trek
Stephen Rivkin
Stephen Rosenbaum
T Bone Burnett
Terri Tatchell
Tom McCarthy
Tom Myers
Tomm Moore
Tony Johnson
Tony Lamberti
Tony Roche
Transformers Revenge of the Fallen
Up
Up in the Air
Vera Farmiga
Vittorio Sodano
Wes Anderson
Which Way Home
White Ribbon
Woody Harrelson
Wylie Stateman
Young Victoria


related


· Colin Firth and Natalie Portman are Oscar shoo-ins; everything else up for grabs: Oscar predictions
· In the Loop (review)
· ‘Hurt Locker’ wins 2009 Best Picture from Online Film Critics Society
· question of the day: What do you think of the Golden Globe winners?
· top 10 movies of 2009: the whys and wherefores
· Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (review)
· December 11: DVD alternatives to this weekend’s multiplex offerings
· about “Logorama”
· The Hurt Locker (review)
· Up in the Air (review)


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