(Looking for coverage of the 78th Oscars, to be awarded on March 5, 2006? Head over to the new blog.)

The big questions this year are the same big questions every year: Who's gonna get an Oscar out of sentiment, because, damn, he's getting old and we'd better recognize him before he keels over? Who's gonna get an Oscar because we really should have given it to him last year, so we'll award his lesser work this year? For every award that goes to the actual best work of the year, there's one that gets handed out like candy to good troopers and long-suffering multiple nominees with still-empty mantels.

So, does all that make it easier, or harder, to predict the Oscar winners? Who cares? It's a ton of fun, and who can resist indulging in a little prognostication? Herewith my predictions for most of the major categories. (I haven't seen any of the short films, nor enough of the foreign language films, to even pretend I can make informed guesses about who'll win, so a few categories are missing here.) Take them with a grain of salt... unless I turn out to be right, in which case you may praise my prescience.

You can try your hand at prediction at the official Oscar site, where the grand prize in the Predict the Winners game is a home-entertainment system that includes a *drool* widescreen plasma television. Check it out. (The official Oscar site, by the way, is particularly good and chock full of history and photos and such; I wouldn't have accepted it as a sponsor of my site if it weren't. If you stop by for a visit, you'll not only be upping your Oscar IQ but helping to support FlickFilosopher.com, too.)

You do know that the awards are now being handed out a month earlier than they used to, don't you? The Oscars will air on Sunday, February 27, 8pm Eastern on ABC.

Overall prediction: An aviator will fly high.

[updated 02.28.05: winners are starred]

Picture
The Aviator [will win] [should win]
Finding Neverland
*Million Dollar Baby [dark horse]
Ray
Sideways

Animated Feature
*The Incredibles [will win] [should win]
Shark Tale
Shrek 2

Documentary Feature
*Born into Brothels [will win]
The Story of the Weeping Camel [dark horse]
Super Size Me [should win]
Tupac: Resurrection
Twist of Faith

Actor
Don Cheadle: Hotel Rwanda [should win]
Johnny Depp: Finding Neverland [dark horse]
Leonardo DiCaprio: The Aviator
Clint Eastwood: Million Dollar Baby
*Jamie Foxx: Ray [will win]

Actress
Annette Bening: Being Julia [will win]
Catalina Sandino Moreno: Maria Full of Grace
Imelda Staunton: Vera Drake [should win]
*Hilary Swank: Million Dollar Baby [dark horse]
Kate Winslet: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Supporting Actor
Alan Alda: The Aviator [will win]
Thomas Haden Church: Sideways
Jamie Foxx: Collateral [should win]
*Morgan Freeman: Million Dollar Baby
Clive Owen: Closer

Supporting Actress
*Cate Blanchett: The Aviator [dark horse]
Laura Linney: Kinsey
Virginia Madsen: Sideways [will win]
Sophie Okonedo: Hotel Rwanda [should win]
Natalie Portman: Closer

Director
Martin Scorsese: The Aviator [will win] [should win]
*Clint Eastwood: Million Dollar Baby [dark horse]
Taylor Hackford: Ray
Alexander Payne: Sideways
Mike Leigh: Vera Drake

Adapted Screenplay
Before Sunset
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
The Motorcycle Diaries [dark horse]
*Sideways [will win] [should win]

Original Screenplay
The Aviator [will win]
*Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind [should win]
Hotel Rwanda [dark horse]
The Incredibles
Vera Drake

Art Direction
*The Aviator [will win]
Finding Neverland
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events [should win]
The Phantom of the Opera
A Very Long Engagement [dark horse]

Cinematography
*The Aviator [will win]
House of Flying Daggers [should win]
The Passion of the Christ [dark horse]
The Phantom of the Opera
A Very Long Engagement

Original Score
*Finding Neverland [will win] [should win]
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
The Passion of the Christ [dark horse]
The Village

Original Song
"Accidentally in Love": Shrek 2 [should win]
*"Al Otro Lado Del Río": The Motorcycle Diaries
"Believe": The Polar Express
"Learn to Be Lonely": The Phantom of the Opera [will win]
"Look to Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)": The Chorus (Les Choristes) [dark horse]

Costumes
*The Aviator [will win]
Finding Neverland
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events [should win]
Ray
Troy

Film Editing
*The Aviator [will win]
Collateral [dark horse]
Finding Neverland [should win]
Million Dollar Baby
Ray

Makeup
*Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events [will win] [should win]
The Passion of the Christ
The Sea Inside

Visual effects
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban [will win] [should win]
I, Robot
*Spider-Man 2

--MaryAnn Johanson
02.08.05