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maryann johanson | #BlackLivesMatter

question of the day: How much will ‘Watchmen’ make over opening weekend?

Predicting box office numbers has not been something I’ve been keen to get into here, but I think this is a unique case. Whatever number we see for Watchmen come next Monday, it’s going to get spun. If the movie does phenomenally well — say, over $125 million — it’ll be seen as a vindication of the love that The Dark Knight was showered with last year, by moviegoers and critics alike — the “serious comic book movie” will be said to have really and truly arrived. You’ll also hear chatter — already! — about Oscars… which we will not hear if the movie does more poorly, say, $75 million or under. (This is a prediction I am confident about making: the Oscars will only give love to comic book movies that geeks adore too. The Academy may not mind appearing to be out of touch with mainstream audiences when it comes to arthouse films, but it will not want to be seen as out of touch about blockbusters, and so will only dare to honor the ones that audiences already like.)
If Watchmen clocks in at $75 million or less, this will be the first thing that is blamed: the R rating. The rating might not stop kids from sneaking into the film, but they won’t be able to buy tickets to it, so their attendence at the film won’t be counted. A low box office number may not be an accurate reflection of how many people see the movie this weekend. But the box office number is the only one that counts.

So let’s play the game:

How much will ‘Watchmen’ make over opening weekend?

I’m making an estimated guess based on how many showtimes are already sold out here plus the built-in geek appeal minus the lack of recognizable faces to draw in people who aren’t already keyed in to Watchmen: $102 million.

(Today’s QOTD was suggested by Ken. If you have a suggestion for a QOTD, feel free to email me.)

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