UPDATE: 03.03.25 Winners are now indicated. I correctly guessed 12 out of the 23 categories, which is exactly as well as I did last year. (Five of my “should win”s did win!) At least I’m consistent.
previous: 03.02.25
Herewith my guesses about which nominees will take home Oscars tonight. Come back tomorrow, when I’ll add the winners, and see how well I did.
I’ve had another terrible year as I continue to cope with some mental and physical health issues, so I haven’t reviewed anywhere near as many of this year’s nominees as I’d have liked, but I have seen most of them. (I do still hope to review more of the nominated films asap.) But as usual, my guesses about which films will win — indicated by Xes on the lefthand side — are about trying to put myself in the mindset of how the Academy thinks about movies. Which is often not about any pretense toward determining “objective” quality but about peer pressure; which nominee is “owed” an award after a long career of, perhaps, being slighted at awards season; industry gossip; and the like. Often we hear on the sly about how some Academy members don’t even bother to watch many of the nominees but vote anyway.
I’ve also indicated which nominees I think should win… which isn’t necessarily which nominee I think is the best among all the year’s work but which I think is most deserving among the five — or in the case of Best Picture, ten — actual nominees.
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is honoring films released between January 1, 2024, and December 31, 2024. Links here go to my reviews.
Check out my still ongoing, not yet completed ranking of 2024’s films.
(See the Academy’s site at Oscars.org and ABC’s site at Oscars.com for your further Oscar needs.)
Actor in a Leading Role
[ X ] Adrien Brody – The Brutalist WINNER
[ ] Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
[ ] Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
[ ] Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
[ ] Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice SHOULD WIN
Actor in a Supporting Role
[ ] Yura Borisov – Anora
[ ] Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain SHOULD WIN WINNER
[ ] Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
[ X ] Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
[ ] Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice
Actress in a Leading Role
[ ] Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
[ ] Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez
[ ] Mikey Madison – Anora WINNER
[ ] Demi Moore – The Substance SHOULD WIN
[ X ] Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here
Actress in a Supporting Role
[ ] Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
[ ] Ariana Grande – Wicked
[ ] Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
[ X ] Isabella Rossellini – Conclave SHOULD WIN
[ ] Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez WINNER
Animated Feature Film
[ ] Flow SHOULD WIN WINNER
[ ] Inside Out 2
[ ] Memoir of a Snail
[ ] Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
[ X ] The Wild Robot
Animated Short Film
[ ] “Beautiful Men”
[ X ] “In the Shadow of the Cypress” WINNER
[ ] “Magic Candies”
[ ] “Wander to Wonder” SHOULD WIN
[ ] “Yuck! (Beurk!)”
Cinematography
[ X ] The Brutalist WINNER
[ ] Dune: Part Two
[ ] Emilia Pérez
[ ] Maria
[ ] Nosferatu SHOULD WIN
Costume Design
[ ] A Complete Unknown
[ ] Conclave
[ ] Gladiator II
[ ] Nosferatu SHOULD WIN
[ X ] Wicked WINNER
Directing
[ ] Sean Baker – Anora WINNER
[ X ] Brady Corbet – The Brutalist SHOULD WIN
[ ] James Mangold – A Complete Unknown
[ ] Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
[ ] Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
Documentary Feature Film
[ ] Black Box Diaries
[ X ] No Other Land SHOULD WIN WINNER
[ ] Porcelain War
[ ] Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
[ ] Sugarcane
Documentary Short Film
[ ] “Death by Numbers”
[ ] “I Am Ready, Warden”
[ ] “Incident” SHOULD WIN
[ ] “Instruments of a Beating Heart”
[ X ] “The Only Girl in the Orchestra” WINNER
Film Editing
[ ] Anora WINNER
[ ] The Brutalist
[ ] Conclave SHOULD WIN
[ ] Emilia Pérez
[ X ] Wicked
International Feature Film
[ X ] I’m Still Here WINNER
[ ] The Girl with the Needle
[ ] Emilia Pérez
[ ] The Seed of the Sacred Fig SHOULD WIN
[ ] Flow
Makeup and Hairstyling
[ ] A Different Man
[ ] Emilia Pérez
[ ] Nosferatu SHOULD WIN
[ ] The Substance WINNER
[ X ] Wicked
Music (Original Score)
[ ] The Brutalist WINNER
[ ] Conclave SHOULD WIN
[ ] Emilia Pérez
[ X ] Wicked
[ ] The Wild Robot
Music (Original Song)
[ ] “El Mal” – Emilia Pérez WINNER
[ X ] “The Journey” – The Six Triple Eight
[ ] “Like a Bird” – Sing Sing SHOULD WIN
[ ] “Mi Camino” – Emilia Pérez
[ ] “Never Too Late” – Elton John: Never Too Late
Best Picture
[ ] Anora WINNER
[ X ] The Brutalist SHOULD WIN
[ ] A Complete Unknown
[ ] Conclave
[ ] Dune: Part Two
[ ] Emilia Pérez
[ ] I’m Still Here
[ ] Nickel Boys
[ ] The Substance
[ ] Wicked
Production Design
[ ] The Brutalist SHOULD WIN
[ ] Conclave
[ ] Dune: Part Two
[ ] Nosferatu
[ X ] Wicked WINNER
Live Action Short Film
[ ] “A Lien”
[ ] “Anuja”
[ X ] “I’m Not a Robot” SHOULD WIN WINNER
[ ] “The Last Ranger”
[ ] “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”
Sound
[ ] A Complete Unknown
[ X ] Dune: Part Two SHOULD WIN WINNER
[ ] Emilia Pérez
[ ] Wicked
[ ] The Wild Robot
Visual Effects
[ ] Alien: Romulus
[ ] Better Man
[ X ] Dune: Part Two SHOULD WIN WINNER
[ ] Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
[ ] Wicked
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
[ ] A Complete Unknown
[ ] Conclave WINNER
[ ] Emilia Pérez
[ X ] Nickel Boys
[ ] Sing Sing SHOULD WIN
Writing (Original Screenplay)
[ ] Anora WINNER
[ ] The Brutalist
[ ] A Real Pain
[ ] September 5
[ X ] The Substance SHOULD WIN
We know two things:
(1.) The Oscars are being held on Dr. Seuss’ birthday.
(2.) They’re planning to skip the Best Original Song nominees in favor of other musical numbers.
Clearly, the entire ceremony is going to be a musical adaptation of the works of Dr. Seuss, and I’m looking forward to it.
I’m so happy Flow won! Such a great movie.