UPDATE: 03.16.26 Winners are now indicated. I correctly guessed 12 out of the 24 categories, which is about as well as I usually do. (Ten of my “should win”s did win!) At least I’m consistent.
previous: 03.14.26
I am so very sorry that I’ve been so absent these past months. It pains me and it embarrasses me, but I continue to struggle mightily with my mental health in the wake of bereavements, physical health issues, and the appalling state of the world at large. I vacillate wildly between “movies don’t matter when the planet is going to hell” and “movies matter more than ever when we’re all struggling to make sense of the world.” I especially hate this because my head is full of thoughts about the films I’ve seen yet it remains difficult to find the headspace to actually write about them.
But I’m working on it.
While I do that, herewith my guesses about which nominees will take home Oscars tomorrow night. Come back on Monday to see how well I did.
I haven’t reviewed anywhere near as many of this year’s nominees as I’d have liked, but I have seen most of them. (I do still hope to review more of the nominated films asap.) But as in previous years, my guesses about which films will win — indicated by Xes on the lefthand side — are about trying to put myself in the mindset of how the Academy thinks about movies. Which is often not about any pretense toward determining “objective” quality but about peer pressure; which nominee is “owed” an award after a long career of, perhaps, being slighted at awards season; industry gossip; and the like. Often we hear on the sly about how some Academy members don’t even bother to watch many of the nominees but vote anyway.
I’ve also indicated which nominees I think should win… which isn’t necessarily which nominee I think is the best among all the year’s work but which I think is most deserving among the five — or in the case of Best Picture, ten — actual nominees.
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is honoring films released between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025. The very few links here as of initial posting go to my reviews.
Check out my still ongoing, not yet completed ranking of 2025’s films.
(See the Academy’s site at Oscars.org and ABC’s site at Oscars.com for your further Oscar needs.)
Actor in a Leading Role
[ ] Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
[ X ] Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
[ ] Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
[ ] Michael B. Jordan – Sinners SHOULD WIN WINNER
[ ] Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
Actor in a Supporting Role
[ X ] Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another SHOULD WIN
[ ] Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
[ ] Delroy Lindo – Sinners
[ ] Sean Penn – One Battle After Another WINNER
[ ] Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
Actress in a Leading Role
[ X ] Jessie Buckley – Hamnet SHOULD WIN WINNER
[ ] Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
[ ] Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue
[ ] Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
[ ] Emma Stone – Bugonia
Actress in a Supporting Role
[ ] Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
[ ] Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
[ X ] Amy Madigan – Weapons WINNER
[ ] Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners SHOULD WIN
[ ] Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
Animated Feature Film
[ X ] Arco
[ ] Elio
[ ] KPop Demon Hunters WINNER
[ ] Little Amélie or the Character of Rain SHOULD WIN
[ ] Zootopia 2
Animated Short Film
[ ] “Butterfly”
[ ] “Forevergreen”
[ ] “The Girl Who Cried Pearls” WINNER
[ X ] “Retirement Plan” SHOULD WIN
[ ] “The Three Sisters”
Casting
[ ] Hamnet
[ ] Marty Supreme
[ ] One Battle After Another WINNER
[ ] The Secret Agent
[ X ] Sinners SHOULD WIN
Cinematography
[ ] Frankenstein
[ ] Marty Supreme
[ ] One Battle After Another
[ ] Sinners SHOULD WIN WINNER
[ X ] Train Dreams
Costume Design
[ ] Avatar: Fire and Ash
[ ] Frankenstein WINNER
[ ] Hamnet
[ ] Marty Supreme
[ X ] Sinners SHOULD WIN
Directing
[ ] Chloé Zhao – Hamnet
[ ] Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
[ X ] Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another WINNER
[ ] Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
[ ] Ryan Coogler – Sinners SHOULD WIN
Documentary Feature Film
[ ] The Alabama Solution
[ ] Come See Me in the Good Light
[ ] Cutting Through Rocks
[ X ] Mr. Nobody Against Putin WINNER
[ ] The Perfect Neighbor SHOULD WIN
Documentary Short Film
[ ] “All the Empty Rooms” WINNER
[ ] “Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud”
[ ] “Children No More: ‘Were and Are Gone’”
[ ] “The Devil Is Busy”
[ X ] “Perfectly a Strangeness” SHOULD WIN
Film Editing
[ X ] F1
[ ] Marty Supreme
[ ] One Battle After Another SHOULD WIN WINNER
[ ] Sentimental Value
[ ] Sinners
International Feature Film
[ ] The Secret Agent SHOULD WIN
[ ] It Was Just an Accident
[ ] Sentimental Value WINNER
[ X ] Sirāt
[ ] The Voice of Hind Rajab
Live Action Short Film
[ ] “Butcher’s Stain”
[ ] “A Friend of Dorothy”
[ ] “Jane Austen’s Period Drama”
[ ] “The Singers” WINNER (tie)
[ X ] “Two People Exchanging Saliva” SHOULD WIN WINNER (tie)
Makeup and Hairstyling
[ X ] Frankenstein SHOULD WIN WINNER
[ ] Kokuho
[ ] Sinners
[ ] The Smashing Machine
[ ] The Ugly Stepsister
Music (Original Score)
[ ] Bugonia
[ ] Frankenstein
[ ] Hamnet
[ ] One Battle After Another
[ X ] Sinners SHOULD WIN WINNER
Music (Original Song)
[ X ] “Dear Me” – Diane Warren: Relentless
[ ] “Golden” – KPop Demon Hunters WINNER
[ ] “I Lied to You” – Sinners SHOULD WIN
[ ] “Sweet Dreams of Joy” – Viva Verdi!
[ ] “Train Dreams” – Train Dreams
Best Picture
[ ] Bugonia
[ ] F1
[ ] Frankenstein
[ ] Hamnet
[ ] Marty Supreme
[ X ] One Battle After Another WINNER
[ ] The Secret Agent
[ ] Sentimental Value
[ ] Sinners SHOULD WIN
[ ] Train Dreams
Production Design
[ X ] Frankenstein WINNER
[ ] Hamnet
[ ] Marty Supreme
[ ] One Battle After Another
[ ] Sinners SHOULD WIN
Sound
[ X ] F1 WINNER
[ ] Frankenstein
[ ] One Battle After Another
[ ] Sinners SHOULD WIN
[ ] Sirāt
Visual Effects
[ X ] Avatar: Fire and Ash SHOULD WIN WINNER
[ ] F1
[ ] Jurassic World Rebirth
[ ] The Lost Bus
[ ] Sinners
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
[ ] Bugonia
[ ] Frankenstein
[ ] Hamnet
[ X ] One Battle After Another SHOULD WIN WINNER
[ ] Train Dreams
Writing (Original Screenplay)
[ ] Blue Moon
[ ] It Was Just an Accident
[ ] Marty Supreme
[ X ] Sentimental Value
[ ] Sinners SHOULD WIN WINNER
