UPDATED: Winners are indicated with ♦s.
I made informed guesses in 18 of the 24 categories; of those, I guessed 11 correctly. Which is much better than chance.
Here’s an at-a-glance look at my picks for tomorrow night’s Academy Awards — projected winners are Xed. Keep in mind: this isn’t a list of whom I think should win Oscars but whom I think will win.
I haven’t made predictions in categories for which I have not seen enough of the nominated films to make a reasonable guess.
As always, take these predictions with a grain of salt. No one really understands how the Academy thinks.
(See the Academy’s site at Oscars.org and ABC’s site at Oscars.com for your further Oscar needs.)
best picture
[ × ] The Artist, Thomas Langmann, Producer should win ♦
[ ] The Descendants, Jim Burke, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, Producers
[ ] Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Scott Rudin, Producer
[ ] The Help, Brunson Green, Chris Columbus and Michael Barnathan, Producers
[ ] Hugo, Graham King and Martin Scorsese, Producers
[ ] Midnight in Paris, Letty Aronson and Stephen Tenenbaum, Producers
[ ] Moneyball, Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz and Brad Pitt, Producers
[ ] The Tree of Life, Sarah Green, Bill Pohlad, Dede Gardner and Grant Hill, Producers
[ ] War Horse, Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers
directing
[ × ] The Artist, Michel Hazanavicius should win ♦
[ ] The Descendants, Alexander Payne
[ ] Hugo, Martin Scorsese
[ ] Midnight in Paris, Woody Allen
[ ] The Tree of Life, Terrence Malick
actor in a leading role
[ ] Demián Bichir in A Better Life
[ ] George Clooney in The Descendants
[ × ] Jean Dujardin in The Artist should win ♦
[ ] Gary Oldman in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
[ ] Brad Pitt in Moneyball
actress in a leading role
[ ] Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs
[ ] Viola Davis in The Help should win
[ ] Rooney Mara in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
[ × ] Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady ♦
[ ] Michelle Williams in My Week with Marilyn
actor in a supporting role
[ ] Kenneth Branagh in My Week with Marilyn
[ ] Jonah Hill in Moneyball
[ ] Nick Nolte in Warrior
[ × ] Christopher Plummer in Beginners should win ♦
[ ] Max von Sydow in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
actress in a supporting role
[ ] Bérénice Bejo in The Artist should win
[ ] Jessica Chastain in The Help
[ ] Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids
[ ] Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs
[ × ] Octavia Spencer in The Help ♦
animated feature film
[ ] A Cat in Paris, Alain Gagnol and Jean-Loup Felicioli
[ ] Chico & Rita, Fernando Trueba and Javier Mariscal
[ ] Kung Fu Panda 2, Jennifer Yuh Nelson
[ ] Puss in Boots, Chris Miller
[ ] Rango, Gore Verbinski ♦
documentary (feature)
[ ] Hell and Back Again, Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner
[ ] If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front, Marshall Curry and Sam Cullman
[ ] Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory, Joe Berlinger and Bruce Sinofsky
[ ] Pina, Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel
[ ] Undefeated, TJ Martin, Dan Lindsay and Rich Middlemas ♦
foreign language film
[ ] Bullhead, Belgium
[ ] Footnote, Israel
[ ] In Darkness, Poland
[ ] Monsieur Lazhar, Canada
[ ] A Separation, Iran ♦
writing (adapted screenplay)
[ × ] The Descendants, Screenplay by Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash should win ♦
[ ] Hugo, Screenplay by John Logan
[ ] The Ides of March, Screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon
[ ] Moneyball, Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin; Story by Stan Chervin
[ ] Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Screenplay by Bridget O’Connor & Peter Straughan
writing (original screenplay)
[ × ] The Artist, Written by Michel Hazanavicius should win
[ ] Bridesmaids, Written by Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig
[ ] Margin Call, Written by J.C. Chandor
[ ] Midnight in Paris, Written by Woody Allen ♦
[ ] A Separation, Written by Asghar Farhadi
short film (animated)
[ ] “Dimanche/Sunday,” Patrick Doyon
[ ] “The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore,” William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg ♦
[ ] “La Luna,” Enrico Casarosa
[ ] “A Morning Stroll,” Grant Orchard and Sue Goffe
[ ] “Wild Life,” Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby
short film (live action)
[ ] “Pentecost,” Peter McDonald and Eimear O’Kane
[ ] “Raju,” Max Zähle and Stefan Gieren
[ ] “The Shore,” Terry George and Oorlagh George ♦
[ ] “Time Freak,” Andrew Bowler and Gigi Causey
[ ] “Tuba Atlantic,” Hallvar Witzø
documentary (short subject)
[ ] “The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement,” Robin Fryday and Gail Dolgin
[ ] “God Is the Bigger Elvis,” Rebecca Cammisa and Julie Anderson
[ ] “Incident in New Baghdad,” James Spione
[ ] “Saving Face,” Daniel Junge and Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy ♦
[ ] “The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom,” Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen
cinematography
[ ] The Artist, Guillaume Schiffman
[ ] The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Jeff Cronenweth
[ ] Hugo, Robert Richardson ♦
[ × ] The Tree of Life, Emmanuel Lubezki should win
[ ] War Horse, Janusz Kaminski
film editing
[ ] The Artist, Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius should win
[ ] The Descendants, Kevin Tent
[ ] The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall ♦
[ × ] Hugo, Thelma Schoonmaker
[ ] Moneyball, Christopher Tellefsen
visual effects
[ ] Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler and John Richardson
[ × ] Hugo, Rob Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossmann and Alex Henning ♦
[ ] Real Steel, Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Dan Taylor and Swen Gillberg
[ ] Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett should win
[ ] Transformers: Dark of the Moon, Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew Butler and John Frazier
art direction
[ × ] The Artist, Production Design: Laurence Bennett; Set Decoration: Robert Gould should win
[ ] Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
[ ] Hugo, Production Design: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo ♦
[ ] Midnight in Paris, Production Design: Anne Seibel; Set Decoration: Hélène Dubreuil
[ ] War Horse, Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales
costume design
[ × ] Anonymous, Lisy Christl should win
[ ] The Artist, Mark Bridges ♦
[ ] Hugo, Sandy Powell
[ ] Jane Eyre, Michael O’Connor
[ ] W.E., Arianne Phillips
makeup
[ ] Albert Nobbs, Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle should win
[ ] Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight and Lisa Tomblin
[ × ] The Iron Lady, Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland ♦
music (original score)
[ ] The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn, John Williams
[ ] The Artist, Ludovic Bource should win ♦
[ ] Hugo, Howard Shore
[ × ] Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Alberto Iglesias
[ ] War Horse, John Williams
music (original song)
[ × ] “Man or Muppet” from The Muppets, Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie should win ♦
[ ] “Real in Rio” from Rio, Music by Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown; Lyric by Siedah Garrett
sound editing
[ × ] Drive, Lon Bender and Victor Ray Ennis
[ ] The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Ren Klyce
[ ] Hugo, Philip Stockton and Eugene Gearty ♦
[ ] Transformers: Dark of the Moon, Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl
[ ] War Horse, Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom
sound mixing
[ ] The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Bo Persson
[ × ] Hugo, Tom Fleischman and John Midgley ♦
[ ] Moneyball, Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, David Giammarco and Ed Novick
[ ] Transformers: Dark of the Moon, Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Peter J. Devlin
[ ] War Horse, Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson
