The Artist will have a good night (and other Oscar predictions)

UPDATED: Winners are indicated with ♦s.

I made informed guesses in 18 of the 24 categories; of those, I guessed 11 correctly. Which is much better than chance.

Here’s an at-a-glance look at my picks for tomorrow night’s Academy Awards — projected winners are Xed. Keep in mind: this isn’t a list of whom I think should win Oscars but whom I think will win.

I haven’t made predictions in categories for which I have not seen enough of the nominated films to make a reasonable guess.

As always, take these predictions with a grain of salt. No one really understands how the Academy thinks.

(See the Academy’s site at Oscars.org and ABC’s site at Oscars.com for your further Oscar needs.)
best picture
[ × ] The Artist, Thomas Langmann, Producer should win ♦
[   ] The Descendants, Jim Burke, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, Producers
[   ] Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Scott Rudin, Producer
[   ] The Help, Brunson Green, Chris Columbus and Michael Barnathan, Producers
[   ] Hugo, Graham King and Martin Scorsese, Producers
[   ] Midnight in Paris, Letty Aronson and Stephen Tenenbaum, Producers
[   ] Moneyball, Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz and Brad Pitt, Producers
[   ] The Tree of Life, Sarah Green, Bill Pohlad, Dede Gardner and Grant Hill, Producers
[   ] War Horse, Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers

directing
[ × ] The Artist, Michel Hazanavicius should win ♦
[   ] The Descendants, Alexander Payne
[   ] Hugo, Martin Scorsese
[   ] Midnight in Paris, Woody Allen
[   ] The Tree of Life, Terrence Malick

actor in a leading role
[   ] Demián Bichir in A Better Life
[   ] George Clooney in The Descendants
[ × ] Jean Dujardin in The Artist should win ♦
[   ] Gary Oldman in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
[   ] Brad Pitt in Moneyball

actress in a leading role
[   ] Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs
[   ] Viola Davis in The Help should win
[   ] Rooney Mara in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
[ × ] Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady ♦
[   ] Michelle Williams in My Week with Marilyn

actor in a supporting role
[   ] Kenneth Branagh in My Week with Marilyn
[   ] Jonah Hill in Moneyball
[   ] Nick Nolte in Warrior
[ × ] Christopher Plummer in Beginners should win ♦
[   ] Max von Sydow in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

actress in a supporting role
[   ] Bérénice Bejo in The Artist should win
[   ] Jessica Chastain in The Help
[   ] Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids
[   ] Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs
[ × ] Octavia Spencer in The Help ♦

animated feature film
[   ] A Cat in Paris, Alain Gagnol and Jean-Loup Felicioli
[   ] Chico & Rita, Fernando Trueba and Javier Mariscal
[   ] Kung Fu Panda 2, Jennifer Yuh Nelson
[   ] Puss in Boots, Chris Miller
[   ] Rango, Gore Verbinski ♦

documentary (feature)
[   ] Hell and Back Again, Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner
[   ] If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front, Marshall Curry and Sam Cullman
[   ] Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory, Joe Berlinger and Bruce Sinofsky
[   ] Pina, Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel
[   ] Undefeated, TJ Martin, Dan Lindsay and Rich Middlemas ♦

foreign language film
[   ] Bullhead, Belgium
[   ] Footnote, Israel
[   ] In Darkness, Poland
[   ] Monsieur Lazhar, Canada
[   ] A Separation, Iran ♦

writing (adapted screenplay)
[ × ] The Descendants, Screenplay by Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash should win ♦
[   ] Hugo, Screenplay by John Logan
[   ] The Ides of March, Screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon
[   ] Moneyball, Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin; Story by Stan Chervin
[   ] Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Screenplay by Bridget O’Connor & Peter Straughan

writing (original screenplay)
[ × ] The Artist, Written by Michel Hazanavicius should win
[   ] Bridesmaids, Written by Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig
[   ] Margin Call, Written by J.C. Chandor
[   ] Midnight in Paris, Written by Woody Allen ♦
[   ] A Separation, Written by Asghar Farhadi

short film (animated)
[   ] “Dimanche/Sunday,” Patrick Doyon
[   ] “The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore,” William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg ♦
[   ] “La Luna,” Enrico Casarosa
[   ] “A Morning Stroll,” Grant Orchard and Sue Goffe
[   ] “Wild Life,” Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby

short film (live action)
[   ] “Pentecost,” Peter McDonald and Eimear O’Kane
[   ] “Raju,” Max Zähle and Stefan Gieren
[   ] “The Shore,” Terry George and Oorlagh George ♦
[   ] “Time Freak,” Andrew Bowler and Gigi Causey
[   ] “Tuba Atlantic,” Hallvar Witzø

documentary (short subject)
[   ] “The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement,” Robin Fryday and Gail Dolgin
[   ] “God Is the Bigger Elvis,” Rebecca Cammisa and Julie Anderson
[   ] “Incident in New Baghdad,” James Spione
[   ] “Saving Face,” Daniel Junge and Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy ♦
[   ] “The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom,” Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen

cinematography
[   ] The Artist, Guillaume Schiffman
[   ] The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Jeff Cronenweth
[   ] Hugo, Robert Richardson ♦
[ × ] The Tree of Life, Emmanuel Lubezki should win
[   ] War Horse, Janusz Kaminski

film editing
[   ] The Artist, Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius should win
[   ] The Descendants, Kevin Tent
[   ] The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall ♦
[ × ] Hugo, Thelma Schoonmaker
[   ] Moneyball, Christopher Tellefsen

visual effects
[   ] Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler and John Richardson
[ × ] Hugo, Rob Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossmann and Alex Henning ♦
[   ] Real Steel, Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Dan Taylor and Swen Gillberg
[   ] Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett should win
[   ] Transformers: Dark of the Moon, Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew Butler and John Frazier

art direction
[ × ] The Artist, Production Design: Laurence Bennett; Set Decoration: Robert Gould should win
[   ] Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
[   ] Hugo, Production Design: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo ♦
[   ] Midnight in Paris, Production Design: Anne Seibel; Set Decoration: Hélène Dubreuil
[   ] War Horse, Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales

costume design
[ × ] Anonymous, Lisy Christl should win
[   ] The Artist, Mark Bridges ♦
[   ] Hugo, Sandy Powell
[   ] Jane Eyre, Michael O’Connor
[   ] W.E., Arianne Phillips

makeup
[   ] Albert Nobbs, Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle should win
[   ] Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight and Lisa Tomblin
[ × ] The Iron Lady, Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland ♦

music (original score)
[   ] The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn, John Williams
[   ] The Artist, Ludovic Bource should win ♦
[   ] Hugo, Howard Shore
[ × ] Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Alberto Iglesias
[   ] War Horse, John Williams

music (original song)
[ × ] “Man or Muppet” from The Muppets, Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie should win ♦
[   ] “Real in Rio” from Rio, Music by Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown; Lyric by Siedah Garrett

sound editing
[ × ] Drive, Lon Bender and Victor Ray Ennis
[   ] The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Ren Klyce
[   ] Hugo, Philip Stockton and Eugene Gearty ♦
[   ] Transformers: Dark of the Moon, Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl
[   ] War Horse, Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom

sound mixing
[   ] The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Bo Persson
[ × ] Hugo, Tom Fleischman and John Midgley ♦
[   ] Moneyball, Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, David Giammarco and Ed Novick
[   ] Transformers: Dark of the Moon, Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Peter J. Devlin
[   ] War Horse, Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson