my picks for tonight’s 91st Academy Awards (the Oscars for 2018’s films) (winners indicated)

UPDATE: Winners are now indicated. I correctly guessed 9 out of the 24 categories, which is appalling. I shall be in my corner reprimanding myself.

PREVIOUS 02.24.19:

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences — of which I am, alas, not a member — will hand out its awards for the films of 2018 tonight. The full list of Oscar nominees is below. Links here go to my reviews, with reviews to come for most if not all those I haven’t yet reviewed.

I’ve now seen as many of the nominated films as I will be able to before tonight’s ceremony, and here finally are my educated guesses about who will take home each award — projected winners are Xed at the lefthand side. Keep in mind: those Xes don’t represent whom I think should win Oscars but whom I think will win, based on what little I can grasp about how the Academy thinks. I’ve also noted which nominees I think should win. Kindly note that this is not necessarily my take on who turned in the best performance, wrote the best script, produced the best FX, or whatever, of the year, but whom I think is best among the nominees.

The only film I have not yet seen is Never Look Away, nominated for Best Foreign Language Film and Best Cinematography; I’ve had no access to it and don’t know when I will. I’ve made guesses in those categories anyway.

Check out my own now-final ranking of 2018’s films.

(See the Academy’s site at Oscars.org and ABC’s site at Oscars.com for your further Oscar needs.)

Picture
[   ] Black Panther
[   ] BlacKkKlansman should win
[   ] Bohemian Rhapsody
[   ] The Favourite
[   ] Green Book WINNER
[ X ] Roma
[   ] A Star Is Born
[   ] Vice

Lead Actor
[   ] Christian Bale – Vice
[   ] Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born should win
[   ] Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate
[ X ] Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody WINNER
[   ] Viggo Mortensen- Green Book

Lead Actress
[   ] Yalitza Aparicio – Roma
[ X ] Glenn Close – The Wife
[   ] Olivia Colman – The Favourite should win WINNER
[   ] Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born
[   ] Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Supporting Actor
[   ] Mahershala Ali – Green Book WINNER
[   ] Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
[   ] Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
[ X ] Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? should win
[   ] Sam Rockwell – Vice

Supporting Actress
[   ] Amy Adams – Vice
[   ] Marina de Tavira – Roma
[   ] Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk WINNER
[   ] Emma Stone – The Favourite
[ X ] Rachel Weisz – The Favourite should win

Director
[   ] Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
[   ] Pawel Pawlikowski – Cold War
[   ] Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite should win
[ X ] Alfonso Cuarón – Roma WINNER
[   ] Adam McKay – Vice

Animated Feature
[   ] Incredibles 2 – Brad Bird
[   ] Isle of Dogs – Wes Anderson
[   ] Mirai – Mamoru Hosoda
[   ] Ralph Breaks the Internet – Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
[ X ] Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse – Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman should win WINNER

Animated Short
[   ] “Animal Behaviour” – Alison Snowden, David Fine
[ X ] “Bao” – Domee Shi should win WINNER
[   ] “Late Afternoon” – Louise Bagnall
[   ] “One Small Step” – Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas
[   ] “Weekends” – Trevor Jimenez

Adapted Screenplay
[   ] The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
[   ] BlacKkKlansman – Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee WINNER
[   ] Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty
[ X ] If Beale Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins should win
[   ] A Star Is Born – Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

Original Screenplay
[   ] The Favourite – Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara should win
[ X ] First Reformed – Paul Schrader
[   ] Green Book – Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly WINNER
[   ] Roma – Alfonso Cuarón
[   ] Vice – Adam McKay

Cinematography
[ X ] Cold War – Lukasz Zal
[   ] The Favourite – Robbie Ryan should win
[   ] Never Look Away – Caleb Deschanel
[   ] Roma – Alfonso Cuarón WINNER
[   ] A Star Is Born – Matthew Libatique

Documentary Feature
[   ] Free Solo – Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi WINNER
[ X ] Hale County This Morning, This Evening – RaMell Ross
[   ] Minding the Gap – Bing Liu
[   ] Of Fathers and Sons – Talal Derki
[   ] RBG – Betsy West, Julie Cohen should win

Documentary Short Subject
[   ] “Black Sheep” – Ed Perkins
[   ] “End Game” – Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman
[   ] “Lifeboat” – Skye Fitzgerald
[ X ] “A Night at the Garden” – Marshall Curry should win
[   ] “Period. End of Sentence.” – Rayka Zehtabchi WINNER

Live Action Short Film
[ X ] “Detainment” – Vincent Lambe should win
[   ] “Fauve” – Jeremy Comte
[   ] “Marguerite” – Marianne Farley
[   ] “Mother” – Rodrigo Sorogoyen
[   ] “Skin” – Guy Nattiv WINNER

Foreign Language Film
[   ] Capernaum (Lebanon)
[   ] Cold War (Poland)
[   ] Never Look Away (Germany)
[ X ] Roma (Mexico) should win WINNER
[   ] Shoplifters (Japan)

Film Editing
[   ] BlacKkKlansman – Barry Alexander Brown
[   ] Bohemian Rhapsody – John Ottman WINNER
[   ] Green Book – Patrick J. Don Vito
[ X ] The Favourite – Yorgos Mavropsaridis should win
[   ] Vice – Hank Corwin

Sound Editing
[   ] Black Panther – Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
[   ] Bohemian Rhapsody – John Warhurst WINNER
[   ] First Man – Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
[ X ] A Quiet Place – Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl should win
[   ] Roma – Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay

Sound Mixing
[   ] Black Panther – Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor, Peter Devlin should win
[   ] Bohemian Rhapsody – Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin, John Casali WINNER
[ X ] First Man – Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee, Mary H. Ellis
[   ] Roma – Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan, José Antonio García
[   ] A Star Is Born – Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder, Steve Morrow

Production Design
[ X ] Black Panther – Hannah Beachler should win WINNER
[   ] First Man – Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
[   ] The Favourite – Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
[   ] Mary Poppins Returns – John Myhre, Gordon Sim
[   ] Roma – Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enríquez

Original Score
[   ] BlacKkKlansman – Terence Blanchard
[   ] Black Panther – Ludwig Goransson WINNER
[ X ] If Beale Street Could Talk – Nicholas Britell should win
[   ] Isle of Dogs – Alexandre Desplat
[   ] Mary Poppins Returns – Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman

Original Song
[   ] “All the Stars” from Black Panther by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
[ X ] “I’ll Fight” from RBG by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
[   ] “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
[   ] “Shallow” from A Star Is Born by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt, Benjamin Rice should win WINNER
[   ] “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs by David Rawlings, Gillian Welch

Makeup and Hair
[   ] Border – Göran Lundström, Pamela Goldammer should win
[   ] Mary Queen of Scots – Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher, Jessica Brooks
[ X ] Vice – Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe, Patricia Dehaney WINNER

Costume Design
[   ] The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Mary Zophres
[ X ] Black Panther – Ruth E. Carter should win WINNER
[   ] The Favourite – Sandy Powell
[   ] Mary Poppins Returns – Sandy Powell
[   ] Mary Queen of Scots – Alexandra Byrne

Visual Effects
[   ] Avengers: Infinity War – Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl, Dan Sudick
[   ] Christopher Robin – Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones, Chris Corbould
[ X ] First Man – Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles, J.D. Schwalm should win WINNER
[   ] Ready Player One – Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler, David Shirk
[   ] Solo: A Star Wars Story – Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan, Dominic Tuohy