my picks for tonight’s 91st Academy Awards (the Oscars for 2018’s films) (winners indicated)
UPDATE: Winners are now indicated. I correctly guessed 9 out of the 24 categories, which is appalling. I shall be in my corner reprimanding myself.
PREVIOUS 02.24.19:
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences — of which I am, alas, not a member — will hand out its awards for the films of 2018 tonight. The full list of Oscar nominees is below. Links here go to my reviews, with reviews to come for most if not all those I haven’t yet reviewed.
I’ve now seen as many of the nominated films as I will be able to before tonight’s ceremony, and here finally are my educated guesses about who will take home each award — projected winners are Xed at the lefthand side. Keep in mind: those Xes don’t represent whom I think should win Oscars but whom I think will win, based on what little I can grasp about how the Academy thinks. I’ve also noted which nominees I think should win. Kindly note that this is not necessarily my take on who turned in the best performance, wrote the best script, produced the best FX, or whatever, of the year, but whom I think is best among the nominees.
The only film I have not yet seen is Never Look Away, nominated for Best Foreign Language Film and Best Cinematography; I’ve had no access to it and don’t know when I will. I’ve made guesses in those categories anyway.
Check out my own now-final ranking of 2018’s films.
(See the Academy’s site at Oscars.org and ABC’s site at Oscars.com for your further Oscar needs.)
Picture
[ ] Black Panther
[ ] BlacKkKlansman should win
[ ] Bohemian Rhapsody
[ ] The Favourite
[ ] Green Book WINNER
[ X ] Roma
[ ] A Star Is Born
[ ] Vice
Lead Actor
[ ] Christian Bale – Vice
[ ] Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born should win
[ ] Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate
[ X ] Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody WINNER
[ ] Viggo Mortensen- Green Book
Lead Actress
[ ] Yalitza Aparicio – Roma
[ X ] Glenn Close – The Wife
[ ] Olivia Colman – The Favourite should win WINNER
[ ] Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born
[ ] Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Supporting Actor
[ ] Mahershala Ali – Green Book WINNER
[ ] Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
[ ] Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
[ X ] Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? should win
[ ] Sam Rockwell – Vice
Supporting Actress
[ ] Amy Adams – Vice
[ ] Marina de Tavira – Roma
[ ] Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk WINNER
[ ] Emma Stone – The Favourite
[ X ] Rachel Weisz – The Favourite should win
Director
[ ] Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
[ ] Pawel Pawlikowski – Cold War
[ ] Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite should win
[ X ] Alfonso Cuarón – Roma WINNER
[ ] Adam McKay – Vice
Animated Feature
[ ] Incredibles 2 – Brad Bird
[ ] Isle of Dogs – Wes Anderson
[ ] Mirai – Mamoru Hosoda
[ ] Ralph Breaks the Internet – Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
[ X ] Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse – Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman should win WINNER
Animated Short
[ ] “Animal Behaviour” – Alison Snowden, David Fine
[ X ] “Bao” – Domee Shi should win WINNER
[ ] “Late Afternoon” – Louise Bagnall
[ ] “One Small Step” – Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas
[ ] “Weekends” – Trevor Jimenez
Adapted Screenplay
[ ] The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
[ ] BlacKkKlansman – Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee WINNER
[ ] Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty
[ X ] If Beale Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins should win
[ ] A Star Is Born – Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
Original Screenplay
[ ] The Favourite – Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara should win
[ X ] First Reformed – Paul Schrader
[ ] Green Book – Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly WINNER
[ ] Roma – Alfonso Cuarón
[ ] Vice – Adam McKay
Cinematography
[ X ] Cold War – Lukasz Zal
[ ] The Favourite – Robbie Ryan should win
[ ] Never Look Away – Caleb Deschanel
[ ] Roma – Alfonso Cuarón WINNER
[ ] A Star Is Born – Matthew Libatique
Documentary Feature
[ ] Free Solo – Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi WINNER
[ X ] Hale County This Morning, This Evening – RaMell Ross
[ ] Minding the Gap – Bing Liu
[ ] Of Fathers and Sons – Talal Derki
[ ] RBG – Betsy West, Julie Cohen should win
Documentary Short Subject
[ ] “Black Sheep” – Ed Perkins
[ ] “End Game” – Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman
[ ] “Lifeboat” – Skye Fitzgerald
[ X ] “A Night at the Garden” – Marshall Curry should win
[ ] “Period. End of Sentence.” – Rayka Zehtabchi WINNER
Live Action Short Film
[ X ] “Detainment” – Vincent Lambe should win
[ ] “Fauve” – Jeremy Comte
[ ] “Marguerite” – Marianne Farley
[ ] “Mother” – Rodrigo Sorogoyen
[ ] “Skin” – Guy Nattiv WINNER
Foreign Language Film
[ ] Capernaum (Lebanon)
[ ] Cold War (Poland)
[ ] Never Look Away (Germany)
[ X ] Roma (Mexico) should win WINNER
[ ] Shoplifters (Japan)
Film Editing
[ ] BlacKkKlansman – Barry Alexander Brown
[ ] Bohemian Rhapsody – John Ottman WINNER
[ ] Green Book – Patrick J. Don Vito
[ X ] The Favourite – Yorgos Mavropsaridis should win
[ ] Vice – Hank Corwin
Sound Editing
[ ] Black Panther – Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
[ ] Bohemian Rhapsody – John Warhurst WINNER
[ ] First Man – Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
[ X ] A Quiet Place – Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl should win
[ ] Roma – Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay
Sound Mixing
[ ] Black Panther – Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor, Peter Devlin should win
[ ] Bohemian Rhapsody – Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin, John Casali WINNER
[ X ] First Man – Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee, Mary H. Ellis
[ ] Roma – Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan, José Antonio García
[ ] A Star Is Born – Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder, Steve Morrow
Production Design
[ X ] Black Panther – Hannah Beachler should win WINNER
[ ] First Man – Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
[ ] The Favourite – Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
[ ] Mary Poppins Returns – John Myhre, Gordon Sim
[ ] Roma – Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enríquez
Original Score
[ ] BlacKkKlansman – Terence Blanchard
[ ] Black Panther – Ludwig Goransson WINNER
[ X ] If Beale Street Could Talk – Nicholas Britell should win
[ ] Isle of Dogs – Alexandre Desplat
[ ] Mary Poppins Returns – Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
Original Song
[ ] “All the Stars” from Black Panther by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
[ X ] “I’ll Fight” from RBG by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
[ ] “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
[ ] “Shallow” from A Star Is Born by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt, Benjamin Rice should win WINNER
[ ] “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs by David Rawlings, Gillian Welch
Makeup and Hair
[ ] Border – Göran Lundström, Pamela Goldammer should win
[ ] Mary Queen of Scots – Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher, Jessica Brooks
[ X ] Vice – Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe, Patricia Dehaney WINNER
Costume Design
[ ] The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Mary Zophres
[ X ] Black Panther – Ruth E. Carter should win WINNER
[ ] The Favourite – Sandy Powell
[ ] Mary Poppins Returns – Sandy Powell
[ ] Mary Queen of Scots – Alexandra Byrne
Visual Effects
[ ] Avengers: Infinity War – Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl, Dan Sudick
[ ] Christopher Robin – Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones, Chris Corbould
[ X ] First Man – Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles, J.D. Schwalm should win WINNER
[ ] Ready Player One – Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler, David Shirk
[ ] Solo: A Star Wars Story – Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan, Dominic Tuohy
Adam Driver | Adam McKay | Ai-Ling Lee | Alexandra Byrne | Alexandre Desplat | Alfonso Cuaron | Alice Felton | Alison Snowden | All the Stars | Amy Adams | Andrew Chesworth | Andrew Wyatt | Animal Behaviour | Anthony Rossomando | At Eternity's Gate | Avengers Infinity War | Ballad of Buster Scruggs | Bao | Barbara Enriquez | Barry Alexander Brown | Barry Jenkins | Benjamin A Burtt | Benjamin Rice | Betsy West | Bing Liu | Black Panther | Black Sheep | BlacKkKlansman | Bob Persichetti | Bobby Pontillas | Bohemian Rhapsody | Border | Brad Bird | Bradley Cooper | Brandon Proctor | Brian Currie | Caleb Deschanel | Can You Ever Forgive Me? | Capernaum | Charlie Wachtel | Chris Corbould | Christian Bale | Christopher Lawrence | Christopher Robin | Cold War | Craig Henighan | Dan DeLeeuw | Dan Sudick | David Fine | David Rabinowitz | David Rawlings | David Shirk | Dean Zupancic | Deborah Davis | Detainment | Diane Warren | Domee Shi | Dominic Tuohy | Ed Perkins | Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi | Emma Stone | End Game | Eric Roth | Erik Aadahl | Ethan Coen | Ethan Van der Ryn | Eugenio Caballero | Fauve | Favourite | Fiona Crombie | First Man | First Reformed | Frank A Montano | Free Solo | Gillian Welch | Glenn Close | Goran Lundstrom | Gordon Sim | Grady Cofer | Green Book | Greg Cannom | Guy Nattiv | Hale County This Morning This Evening | Hank Corwin | Hannah Beachler | I'll Fight | Ian Hunter | If Beale Street Could Talk | Incredibles 2 | Isle of Dogs | Jason Ruder | JD Schwalm | Jeff Whitty | Jeffrey Friedman | Jennifer Hudson | Jenny Shircore | Jeremy Comte | Jessica Brooks | Jimmy Chin | Joel Coen | John Casali | John Myhre | John Ottman | John Warhurst | Jon Taylor | Jose Antonio Garcia | Julie Cohen | Kate Biscoe | Kathy Lucas | Kelly Port | Kendrick Lamar | Kevin Willmott | Lady Gaga | Late Afternoon | Lifeboat | Louise Bagnall | Ludwig Goransson | Lukasz Zal | Mahershala Ali | Mamoru Hosoda | Marc Pilcher | Marc Shaiman | Marguerite | Marianne Farley | Marina de Tavira | Mark Ronson | Marshall Curry | Mary H Ellis | Mary Poppins Returns | Mary Queen of Scots | Mary Zophres | Matthew E Butler | Matthew Libatique | Melissa McCarthy | Michael Eames | Mildred Iatrou Morgan | Minding the Gap | Mirai | Mother | Nathan Crowley | Neal Scanlan | Never Look Away | Nicholas Britell | Nick Vallelonga | Nicole Holofcener | Night at the Garden | Of Fathers and Sons | Olivia Colman | One Small Step | Oscars | Pamela Goldammer | Patricia Dehaney | Patrick J Don Vito | Patrick Tubach | Paul Lambert | Paul Massey | Paul Schrader | Pawel Pawlikowski | Period End of Sentence | Peter Devlin | Peter Farrelly | Peter Ramsey | Phil Johnston | Place Where Lost Things Go | Quiet Place | Rachel Weisz | Ralph Breaks the Internet | RaMell Ross | Rami Malek | Rayka Zehtabchi | RBG | Ready Player One | Regina King | Rich Moore | Richard E Grant | Rob Bredow | Rob Epstein | Robbie Ryan | Rodney Rothman | Rodrigo Sorogoyen | Roger Guyett | Roma | Russell Earl | Ruth E Carter | Sam Elliott | Sam Rockwell | Sandy Powell | Scott Wittman | Sergio Diaz | Shallow | Shoplifters | Skin | Skip Lievsay | Skye Fitzgerald | Solo A Star Wars Story | Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse | Spike Lee | Star Is Born | Steve Boeddeker | Steve Morrow | SZA | Talal Derki | Terence Blanchard | Theo Jones | Tim Cavagin | Tom Ozanich | Tony McNamara | Trevor Jimenez | Tristan Myles | Vice | Viggo Mortensen | Vincent Lambe | Weekends | Wes Anderson | When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings | Wife | Will Fetters | Willem Dafoe | Yalitza Aparicio | Yorgos Lanthimos | Yorgos Mavropsaridis