UPDATE: Winners are now indicated. I correctly guessed 9 out of the 24 categories, which is appalling. I shall be in my corner reprimanding myself.
PREVIOUS 02.24.19:
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences — of which I am, alas, not a member — will hand out its awards for the films of 2018 tonight. The full list of Oscar nominees is below. Links here go to my reviews, with reviews to come for most if not all those I haven’t yet reviewed.
I’ve now seen as many of the nominated films as I will be able to before tonight’s ceremony, and here finally are my educated guesses about who will take home each award — projected winners are Xed at the lefthand side. Keep in mind: those Xes don’t represent whom I think should win Oscars but whom I think will win, based on what little I can grasp about how the Academy thinks. I’ve also noted which nominees I think should win. Kindly note that this is not necessarily my take on who turned in the best performance, wrote the best script, produced the best FX, or whatever, of the year, but whom I think is best among the nominees.
The only film I have not yet seen is Never Look Away, nominated for Best Foreign Language Film and Best Cinematography; I’ve had no access to it and don’t know when I will. I’ve made guesses in those categories anyway.
Check out my own now-final ranking of 2018’s films.
(See the Academy’s site at Oscars.org and ABC’s site at Oscars.com for your further Oscar needs.)
Picture
[ ] Black Panther
[ ] BlacKkKlansman should win
[ ] Bohemian Rhapsody
[ ] The Favourite
[ ] Green Book WINNER
[ X ] Roma
[ ] A Star Is Born
[ ] Vice
Lead Actor
[ ] Christian Bale – Vice
[ ] Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born should win
[ ] Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate
[ X ] Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody WINNER
[ ] Viggo Mortensen- Green Book
Lead Actress
[ ] Yalitza Aparicio – Roma
[ X ] Glenn Close – The Wife
[ ] Olivia Colman – The Favourite should win WINNER
[ ] Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born
[ ] Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Supporting Actor
[ ] Mahershala Ali – Green Book WINNER
[ ] Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
[ ] Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
[ X ] Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? should win
[ ] Sam Rockwell – Vice
Supporting Actress
[ ] Amy Adams – Vice
[ ] Marina de Tavira – Roma
[ ] Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk WINNER
[ ] Emma Stone – The Favourite
[ X ] Rachel Weisz – The Favourite should win
Director
[ ] Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
[ ] Pawel Pawlikowski – Cold War
[ ] Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite should win
[ X ] Alfonso Cuarón – Roma WINNER
[ ] Adam McKay – Vice
Animated Feature
[ ] Incredibles 2 – Brad Bird
[ ] Isle of Dogs – Wes Anderson
[ ] Mirai – Mamoru Hosoda
[ ] Ralph Breaks the Internet – Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
[ X ] Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse – Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman should win WINNER
Animated Short
[ ] “Animal Behaviour” – Alison Snowden, David Fine
[ X ] “Bao” – Domee Shi should win WINNER
[ ] “Late Afternoon” – Louise Bagnall
[ ] “One Small Step” – Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas
[ ] “Weekends” – Trevor Jimenez
Adapted Screenplay
[ ] The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
[ ] BlacKkKlansman – Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee WINNER
[ ] Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty
[ X ] If Beale Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins should win
[ ] A Star Is Born – Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
Original Screenplay
[ ] The Favourite – Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara should win
[ X ] First Reformed – Paul Schrader
[ ] Green Book – Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly WINNER
[ ] Roma – Alfonso Cuarón
[ ] Vice – Adam McKay
Cinematography
[ X ] Cold War – Lukasz Zal
[ ] The Favourite – Robbie Ryan should win
[ ] Never Look Away – Caleb Deschanel
[ ] Roma – Alfonso Cuarón WINNER
[ ] A Star Is Born – Matthew Libatique
Documentary Feature
[ ] Free Solo – Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi WINNER
[ X ] Hale County This Morning, This Evening – RaMell Ross
[ ] Minding the Gap – Bing Liu
[ ] Of Fathers and Sons – Talal Derki
[ ] RBG – Betsy West, Julie Cohen should win
Documentary Short Subject
[ ] “Black Sheep” – Ed Perkins
[ ] “End Game” – Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman
[ ] “Lifeboat” – Skye Fitzgerald
[ X ] “A Night at the Garden” – Marshall Curry should win
[ ] “Period. End of Sentence.” – Rayka Zehtabchi WINNER
Live Action Short Film
[ X ] “Detainment” – Vincent Lambe should win
[ ] “Fauve” – Jeremy Comte
[ ] “Marguerite” – Marianne Farley
[ ] “Mother” – Rodrigo Sorogoyen
[ ] “Skin” – Guy Nattiv WINNER
Foreign Language Film
[ ] Capernaum (Lebanon)
[ ] Cold War (Poland)
[ ] Never Look Away (Germany)
[ X ] Roma (Mexico) should win WINNER
[ ] Shoplifters (Japan)
Film Editing
[ ] BlacKkKlansman – Barry Alexander Brown
[ ] Bohemian Rhapsody – John Ottman WINNER
[ ] Green Book – Patrick J. Don Vito
[ X ] The Favourite – Yorgos Mavropsaridis should win
[ ] Vice – Hank Corwin
Sound Editing
[ ] Black Panther – Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
[ ] Bohemian Rhapsody – John Warhurst WINNER
[ ] First Man – Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
[ X ] A Quiet Place – Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl should win
[ ] Roma – Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay
Sound Mixing
[ ] Black Panther – Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor, Peter Devlin should win
[ ] Bohemian Rhapsody – Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin, John Casali WINNER
[ X ] First Man – Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee, Mary H. Ellis
[ ] Roma – Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan, José Antonio García
[ ] A Star Is Born – Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder, Steve Morrow
Production Design
[ X ] Black Panther – Hannah Beachler should win WINNER
[ ] First Man – Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
[ ] The Favourite – Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
[ ] Mary Poppins Returns – John Myhre, Gordon Sim
[ ] Roma – Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enríquez
Original Score
[ ] BlacKkKlansman – Terence Blanchard
[ ] Black Panther – Ludwig Goransson WINNER
[ X ] If Beale Street Could Talk – Nicholas Britell should win
[ ] Isle of Dogs – Alexandre Desplat
[ ] Mary Poppins Returns – Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
Original Song
[ ] “All the Stars” from Black Panther by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
[ X ] “I’ll Fight” from RBG by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
[ ] “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
[ ] “Shallow” from A Star Is Born by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt, Benjamin Rice should win WINNER
[ ] “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs by David Rawlings, Gillian Welch
Makeup and Hair
[ ] Border – Göran Lundström, Pamela Goldammer should win
[ ] Mary Queen of Scots – Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher, Jessica Brooks
[ X ] Vice – Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe, Patricia Dehaney WINNER
Costume Design
[ ] The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Mary Zophres
[ X ] Black Panther – Ruth E. Carter should win WINNER
[ ] The Favourite – Sandy Powell
[ ] Mary Poppins Returns – Sandy Powell
[ ] Mary Queen of Scots – Alexandra Byrne
Visual Effects
[ ] Avengers: Infinity War – Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl, Dan Sudick
[ ] Christopher Robin – Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones, Chris Corbould
[ X ] First Man – Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles, J.D. Schwalm should win WINNER
[ ] Ready Player One – Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler, David Shirk
[ ] Solo: A Star Wars Story – Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan, Dominic Tuohy
Wow, you don’t have Shallow as expected to win? That seems like just about the biggest lock in Oscar history to me.
I agreed with you at first, but then I looked up the recent history of the Best Song winners: “How Far I’ll Go” (Moana) lost to “City of Stars” (La La Land), and “This Is Me” (Greatest Showman) lost to “Remember Me” (Coco). Who even remembers what “City of Stars” and “Remember Me” sound like? So yeah, I guess I wouldn’t be too confident that even a clearly excellent, catchy, and popular song would have a lock on things.
(And it’s got some competition this year too; “All the Stars” from Black Panther is also excellent and from a critically acclaimed soundtrack, by a Pulitzer Prize-winning musician, attached to a culturally significant film, so that might draw away some votes.)
I do hope “Shallow” wins.
Oh my god.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-Sv6fu-udU
https://www.instagram.com/p/BuRfHqzAt-9/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
I remember (and really loved!) City of Stars and Remember Me. I don’t even know that song from Greatest Showman. So ¯_(ツ)_/¯
There are other good songs this year, but Shallow just seems like such a juggernaut.
Haha! That’ll teach me to assume everyone likes the same music I do (a lesson I should’ve learned from arguing over movies on this here site). :-)
When Aimee Mann was nominated, she said, “I’d like to win an Oscar, but that would mean that I suck.”
She didn’t win.
If the Academy really wants to cut down the Oscars’ run time, it should just require all winners to give Joe Pesci’s speech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0Q_nyjuEak&t=54s
I hope it does win. I fear it won’t.
Fair enough! I feel the same way about some of the other categories, but this was the one I wasn’t feeling at all worried about.
I see you really, really liked The Favourite. I’ll have to check it out.
I think Roma will win and should win. Also think If Beale Street Could Talk should have gotten a Best Picture nom, instead of, say, Bohemian Rhapsody. It was an enjoyable film for Queen fans and Malek is good at channeling Freddie, but I don’t think its story or direction were particularly noteworthy.
I did. I MUST review it soon. *sigh* There aren’t enough hours in the day or days in the week.
Roma made a great double feature with The Favourite – one an optimistic tale of a simple woman holding on to her humanity from the lower rungs of the class hierarchy shot with beautiful, sweeping, open-air naturalism, the other a pessimistic, absurd story of an intelligent woman torn apart and consumed by the top of the class system shot like a lurid, fish-eyed claustrophic gothic horror.
The Favourite sneaks up on you – I laughed so hard I almost choked on my nachos when the first dance scene started. By the end, all three women have more layers and pathos than most lead roles in serious dramas, especially Weisz’s Lady Sarah whom I both despise and admire. It’s a bit depressing how politically relevant a farcical comedy about a clueless monarch surrounded by two parties of self-serving out-of-touch politicians can be. I guess some things never change.
SPOILER ALERT
What seems like a throwaway joke when Sarah sarcastically asks Abigail if she wants to be a monster for her children, and Abigail says yes, is chilling in retrospect as Abigail not only plays a monster for Sarah’s “child,” the queen, but eventually becomes a monstrous child of the child queen herself.
It’s a unique hybrid of comedy and horror in which the “killer” is simultaneously the system and the victims themselves, starting at the surface and burrowing down to the core of its characters like a rabbit – and yet as deep and complex as the rabbit holes get, the rabbits never truly escape their concentric cages. Plus it’s horrifically funny.
The Favourite was terrific. Another vote here that you should see it.
Strongly agree on Beale Street as well. Would have loved to see that (and Eighth Grade) get nominated.
They got recognized at the Spirit Awards, which seem like a necessary counterbalance this year:
https://www.latimes.com/entertainment/movies/la-et-mn-oscars-spirit-awards-preview-20190221-story.html
To be fair, though, Olivia Colman wasn’t expecting to beat out Glenn Close either. :-)
And — though their messages aren’t the same — Green Book winning was like Trump winning: unthinkable at the time, but everyone afterwards is saying “What did we expect? We should’ve known all along.”
On the other hand: I guess “Period. End of Sentence” WASN’T too “icky” for the Academy’s male voters. Good job, males.
And yay for all the diverse wins like for the Spider-Verse and Black Panther teams, and the Asian American filmmakers of Free Solo, and Malek and King and Lee; some of those speeches were inspiring to see.
I can’t get mad at Black Panther winning for Score, but I agree Beale Street deserved it. That score is exquisitely gorgeous.
That Lady Gaga-Bradley Cooper duet: WHOOOO. That was the only song performed, right? I don’t remember any others. :-)
To be honest, I’m not actually reprimanding myself. :-)