my picks for tonight’s 96th Academy Awards (the Oscars for 2023’s films) (winners indicated)

UPDATE: 03.11.24 Winners are now indicated. I correctly guessed 12 out of the 23 categories, which is a little worse than how I did last year but better than the year before. So about par for the course for me.

previous: 03.10.24

Herewith my guesses about which nominees will take home Oscars tonight.

I haven’t reviewed many of this year’s nominees, but I have seen most of them. (I do still hope to review more of the nominated films asap.) But as usual, my guesses about which films will win — indicated by Xes on the lefthand side — are about trying to put myself in the mindset of how the Academy thinks about movies. Which is often not about any pretense toward determining “objective” quality but about peer pressure; which nominee is “owed” an award after a long career of, perhaps, being slighted at awards season; and the like. Often we hear on the sly about how some Academy members don’t even bother to watch many of the nominees but vote anyway.

At least I’ve seen most of the nominees…

previous: 01.23.24

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences — of which I am, alas, not a member — has just revealed the nominees of its 2024 awards, for films released between January 1, 2023, and December 31, 2023. The full list of Oscar nominees is below. Links here go to my reviews, with reviews to come for most if not all those I haven’t yet reviewed.

Winners will be announced at the ceremony on March 10th. As soon as possible — but probably in the week before the ceremony — I’ll post my guesses about who might win. In the meantime, I’ll attempt to review as many of the nominated films as possible.

Check out my still ongoing, not yet completed ranking of 2023’s films.

(See the Academy’s site at Oscars.org and ABC’s site at Oscars.com for your further Oscar needs.)

Best Picture
[    ] American Fiction
[    ] Anatomy of a Fall
[    ] Barbie
[    ] The Holdovers
[    ] Killers of the Flower Moon
[    ] Maestro
[ X ] Oppenheimer WINNER
[    ] Past Lives
[    ] Poor Things
[    ] The Zone of Interest

Best Director
[    ] Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall
[    ] Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
[ X ] Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer WINNER
[    ] Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things
[    ] Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest

Best Actor
[    ] Bradley Cooper – Maestro
[    ] Colman Domingo – Rustin
[    ] Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
[ X ] Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer WINNER
[    ] Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

Best Actress
[    ] Annette Bening – Nyad
[ X ] Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
[    ] Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
[    ] Carey Mulligan – Maestro
[    ] Emma Stone – Poor Things WINNER

Best Supporting Actor
[    ] Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
[    ] Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
[    ] Robert Downey Jr – Oppenheimer WINNER
[ X ] Ryan Gosling – Barbie
[    ] Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things

Best Supporting Actress
[    ] Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
[    ] Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
[    ] America Ferrera – Barbie
[ X ] Jodie Foster – Nyad
[    ] Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers WINNER

Best Adapted Screenplay
[    ] American Fiction WINNER
[    ] Barbie
[    ] Oppenheimer
[ X ] Poor Things
[    ] The Zone of Interest

Best Original Screenplay
[    ] Anatomy of a Fall WINNER
[ X ] The Holdovers
[    ] Maestro
[    ] May December
[    ] Past Lives

Best Cinematography
[    ] El Conde
[    ] Killers of the Flower Moon
[    ] Maestro
[    ] Oppenheimer WINNER
[ X ] Poor Things

Best Costume Design
[    ] Barbie
[    ] Killers of the Flower Moon
[    ] Napoleon
[    ] Oppenheimer
[ X ] Poor Things WINNER

Best Film Editing
[    ] Anatomy of a Fall
[    ] The Holdovers
[    ] Killers of the Flower Moon
[ X ] Oppenheimer WINNER
[    ] Poor Things

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
[    ] Golda
[    ] Maestro
[    ] Oppenheimer
[ X ] Poor Things WINNER
[    ] Society of the Snow

Best Production Design
[    ] Barbie
[    ] Killers of the Flower Moon
[    ] Napoleon
[    ] Oppenheimer
[ X ] Poor Things WINNER

Best Original Score
[    ] American Fiction
[    ] Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
[    ] Killers of the Flower Moon
[    ] Oppenheimer WINNER
[ X ] Poor Things

Best Original Song
[    ] “It Never Went Away” – American Symphony
[ X ] “I’m Just Ken” – Barbie
[    ] “What Was I Made For?” – Barbie WINNER
[    ] “The Fire Inside” – Flamin’ Hot
[    ] “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” – Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Sound
[    ] The Creator
[    ] Maestro
[    ] Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
[ X ] Oppenheimer
[    ] The Zone of Interest WINNER

Best Visual Effects
[    ] The Creator
[ X ] Godzilla Minus One WINNER
[    ] Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
[    ] Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
[    ] Napoleon

Best Animated Feature
[ X ] The Boy and the Heron WINNER
[    ] Elemental
[    ] Nimona
[    ] Robot Dreams
[    ] Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Documentary Feature
[    ] Bobi Wine: The People’s President
[    ] The Eternal Memory
[    ] Four Daughters
[    ] To Kill a Tiger
[ X ] 20 Days in Mariupol WINNER

Best International Feature
[    ] Io Capitano
[    ] Perfect Days
[    ] Society of the Snow
[    ] The Teachers’ Lounge
[ X ] The Zone of Interest WINNER

Best Animated Short
[    ] “Letter to a Pig”
[ X ] “Ninety-Five Senses”
[    ] “Our Uniform”
[    ] “Pachyderme”
[    ] “War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko” WINNER

Best Documentary Short
[    ] “The ABCs of Book Banning”
[    ] “The Barber of Little Rock”
[    ] “Island in Between”
[ X ] “The Last Repair Shop” WINNER
[    ] “Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó”

Best Live Action Short
[    ] “The After”
[    ] “Invincible”
[    ] “Knight of Fortune”
[ X ] “Red, White and Blue”
[    ] “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar” WINNER